The School of Odds
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Jon Kunneman v Joseph Kropschot

2026-08-12 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jon Kunneman (Local)

Prediction 75.45%1.33fair odd
EV -4.93%
Edge -3.91%
Kelly -18.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.60%75.45%75.45%75.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.261.2681.97%80.00%79.37%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joseph Kropschot (Visit)

Prediction 24.55%4.07fair odd
EV -7.95%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -2.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.55%24.55%24.55%25.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.713.703.7527.03%26.94%27.03%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jon Kunneman (Local): 75.45%; Joseph Kropschot (Visit): 24.55%. For Jon Kunneman (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.33. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.26, with an expected value of -4.93%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.93%E -3.91%K -18.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -9.18%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 09:50
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.93%E -3.91%K -18.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -9.18%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 09:49
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -4.93%E -3.91%K -18.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -9.18%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 09:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.95%E -6.51%K -36.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -7.95%E -2.12%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 09:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.