Language:English
Johnny Walker v Dominick Reyes
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Johnny Walker (Local)
Prediction 38.95%2.57fair odd
EV +7.10%
Edge +2.58%
Kelly +4.06%
Growth +0.288%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.99%39.09%39.12%42.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.412.382.7545.45%41.56%42.02%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dominick Reyes (Visit)
Prediction 61.05%1.64fair odd
EV +0.129%
Edge +0.079%
Kelly +0.201%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.29%60.91%60.88%65.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.571.581.6468.03%63.56%63.29%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Johnny Walker (Local): 38.95%; Dominick Reyes (Visit): 61.05%. For Johnny Walker (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.10%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +7.10%E +2.58%K +4.06%G +0.288% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -9.64%E -6.51%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-12 01:42 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV +3.21%E +1.21%K +1.94%G +0.062% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -9.64%E -6.51%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 01:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -0.688%E -0.270%K -0.444%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -4.76%E -3.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-12 01:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -2.64%E -1.05%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.76%E -3.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-12 01:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.64%E -1.05%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.37%E -3.46%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-12 01:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.64%E -1.05%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.37%E -3.46%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.64%E -1.05%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.37%E -3.46%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -2.64%E -1.05%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.98%E -3.88%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.12%EV -3.02%E -1.21%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.88%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-12 01:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.58%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.53%E -2.24%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-12 01:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.58%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.14%E -2.64%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-12 01:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.30%EV -4.97%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.70%EV -3.53%E -2.24%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 01:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.97%E -2.04%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.76%E -3.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-12 01:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -5.75%E -2.38%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-12 01:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.53%E -2.72%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.53%E -2.24%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 00:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.53%E -2.72%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.14%E -2.64%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-12 01:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.53%E -2.72%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.76%E -3.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-12 01:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -6.53%E -2.72%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -10.25%E -6.97%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-12 01:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -6.53%E -2.72%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -10.25%E -6.97%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-12 01:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.31%E -3.07%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.14%E -2.64%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-12 01:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.31%E -3.07%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.14%E -2.64%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-12 01:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -1.70%E -1.06%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 22:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -10.42%E -4.53%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -1.09%E -0.674%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 15:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -10.42%E -4.53%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.76%E -3.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-12 01:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -13.15%E -5.90%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -3.53%E -2.24%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-12 01:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -14.32%E -6.51%K -11.93%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV +0.129%E +0.079%K +0.201%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-11 18:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.39% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.61% | 0.2% | 2026-04-12 01:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68% | 0.3% | 2026-04-12 01:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-12 01:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-12 01:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-12 01:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-12 01:45 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-04-12 01:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49% | 2.1% | 2026-04-12 01:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.13% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.00% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.9% | 2026-04-11 18:10 |