The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Johnny Eblen v Impa Kasanganay

Kickoff: 2026-07-19 01:30 UTC

Final: Johnny Eblen 1–0 Impa Kasanganay

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Johnny Eblen (Local)

Prediction 82.31%1.21fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -21.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.54%82.31%82.31%82.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.161.161.1786.21%86.08%86.21%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Impa Kasanganay (Visit)

Prediction 17.69%5.65fair odd
EV -0.925%
Edge -0.165%
Kelly -0.201%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.16%17.69%17.69%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.085.005.6020.83%19.70%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Johnny Eblen (Local): 82.31%; Impa Kasanganay (Visit): 17.69%. For Impa Kasanganay (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.60, with an expected value of -0.925%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.70%E -3.16%K -21.76%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -7.12%E -1.36%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-18 02:05
FanDuel1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.27%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -0.925%E -0.165%K -0.201%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 01:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.27%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -8.00%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 20:35
Bally Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -15.08%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-19 00:55
Unibet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -15.08%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-19 00:55
Grosvenor1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.52%E -3.90%K -28.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -15.08%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-19 00:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.