The School of OddsJohn Garza v Farid Basharat
Head to Head
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Option 1: John Garza (Local)
Odds
4.8520.62%Min
5.4818.26%Mean
5.5018.18%Median
6.2516.00%Max
Consensus probabilities
15.20%6.580Min
19.17%5.217Max
17.27%5.790Mean
17.17%5.825Median
17.17%5.823IQM
17.26%5.792Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 6.25 under the IQM model: 17.17%
EV +7.33%Edge +1.17%Kelly +1.40%Growth +0.102%
Option 2: Farid Basharat (Visit)
Odds
1.1289.29%Min
1.1586.73%Mean
1.1686.21%Median
1.1785.47%Max
Consensus probabilities
80.83%1.237Min
84.80%1.179Max
82.73%1.209Mean
82.83%1.207Median
82.83%1.207IQM
82.74%1.209Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.17 under the IQM model: 82.83%
EV -3.09%Edge -2.64%Kelly -18.19%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | John Garza (Local) ▼ | Farid Basharat (Visit) | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 6.25I 16.00% NM 15.20%EV +7.33% E +1.17% K +1.40% G +0.102% | 1.12I 89.29% NM 84.80%EV -7.23% E -6.46% K -60.28% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| BetMGM | 5.75I 17.39% NM 16.67%EV -1.26% E -0.219% K -0.265% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 83.33%EV -4.75% E -4.13% K -31.66% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.75I 17.39% NM 16.67%EV -1.26% E -0.219% K -0.265% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 83.33%EV -4.75% E -4.13% K -31.66% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-08 02:14 |
| SportsBet | 5.75I 17.39% NM 16.55%EV -1.26% E -0.219% K -0.265% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 83.45%EV -5.58% E -4.89% K -39.83% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| NordicBet | 5.75I 17.39% NM 16.30%EV -1.26% E -0.219% K -0.265% G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29% NM 83.70%EV -7.23% E -6.46% K -60.28% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-08 02:14 |
| Betsson | 5.75I 17.39% NM 16.30%EV -1.26% E -0.219% K -0.265% G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29% NM 83.70%EV -7.23% E -6.46% K -60.28% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| Coolbet | 5.60I 17.86% NM 17.16%EV -3.83% E -0.685% K -0.834% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.84%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-08 03:25 |
| DraftKings | 5.55I 18.02% NM 17.29%EV -4.69% E -0.846% K -1.03% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.71%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-08 10:35 |
| Pinnacle | 5.53I 18.08% NM 17.46%EV -5.04% E -0.911% K -1.11% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 82.54%EV -3.09% E -2.64% K -18.19% G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-08 10:35 |
| Bovada | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.54%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 82.46%EV -3.09% E -2.64% K -18.19% G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-08 02:16 |
| Grosvenor | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.42%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.58%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| Unibet | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.42%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.58%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| TABtouch | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.42%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.58%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 02:14 |
| Virgin Bet | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.42%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.58%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 02:14 |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.42%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.58%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 02:14 |
| ATG (SE) | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.42%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.58%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 02:14 |
| betPARX | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.42%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.58%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| Bally Bet | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.42%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.58%EV -3.92% E -3.38% K -24.50% G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 02:14 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.29%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.71%EV -4.75% E -4.13% K -31.66% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| Bet Right | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.29%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.71%EV -4.75% E -4.13% K -31.66% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-08 07:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.29%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.71%EV -4.75% E -4.13% K -31.66% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-08 09:34 |
| Betr (AU) | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -5.58% E -4.89% K -39.83% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -5.58% E -4.89% K -39.83% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| 888sport | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.17%EV -5.55% E -1.01% K -1.23% G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72% NM 82.83%EV -5.58% E -4.89% K -39.83% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| FanDuel | 5.30I 18.87% NM 17.83%EV -8.99% E -1.70% K -2.09% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 82.17%EV -4.75% E -4.13% K -31.66% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 07:20 |
| Paddy Power | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -14.14% E -2.83% K -3.53% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -3.09% E -2.64% K -18.19% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-08 02:14 |
| TAB | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -14.14% E -2.83% K -3.53% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -3.09% E -2.64% K -18.19% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-08 02:20 |
| Caesars | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -14.14% E -2.83% K -3.53% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -3.09% E -2.64% K -18.19% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-08 02:17 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 5.00I 20.00% NM 18.96%EV -14.14% E -2.83% K -3.53% G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47% NM 81.04%EV -3.09% E -2.64% K -18.19% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-08 07:24 |
| BetAnything | 4.85I 20.62% NM 19.17%EV -16.71% E -3.45% K -4.34% G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96% NM 80.83%EV -4.75% E -4.13% K -31.66% G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-08 13:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | John Garza (Local) | Farid Basharat (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5.88I 17.01% NM 16.83% | 1.19I 84.03% NM 83.17% | 1.0% | 2026-07-08 04:10 |
| Matchbook | 5.50I 18.18% NM 17.42% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 82.58% | 4.4% | 2026-07-08 15:20 |
| ProphetX | 5.05I 19.80% NM 18.68% | 1.16I 86.21% NM 81.32% | 6.0% | 2026-07-08 10:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 5.30I 18.87% NM 16.27% | 1.03I 97.09% NM 83.73% | 16.0% | 2026-07-08 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 5.30I 18.87% NM 16.27% | 1.03I 97.09% NM 83.73% | 16.0% | 2026-07-08 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 5.30I 18.87% NM 16.27% | 1.03I 97.09% NM 83.73% | 16.0% | 2026-07-08 15:20 |
| Novig | 5.00I 20.00% NM 16.67% | 1.00I 100.00% NM 83.33% | 20.0% | 2026-07-08 17:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.21% | 1.10I 90.91% NM 82.96% | 50.00I 2.00% NM 1.83% | 9.6% | 2026-07-08 15:40 |