Language:English
John Garza v Farid Basharat
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
John Garza (Local)
Prediction 15.77%6.34fair odd
EV +14.33%
Edge +1.98%
Kelly +2.29%
Growth +0.329%
assuming max odds 7.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.07%15.90%15.68%18.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.946.007.2520.00%16.83%16.67%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Farid Basharat (Visit)
Prediction 84.23%1.19fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -8.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.04%84.10%84.32%86.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.141.141.1791.74%87.84%87.72%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV +14.33%E +1.98%K +2.29%G +0.329% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -8.19%E -7.51%K -90.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-11 21:29 |
| NordicBet | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +2.50%E +0.385%K +0.455%G +0.011% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.82%E -4.27%K -37.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-11 21:40 |
| Betsson | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +2.50%E +0.385%K +0.455%G +0.011% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.82%E -4.27%K -37.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-11 21:39 |
| BetMGM | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +2.50%E +0.385%K +0.455%G +0.011% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.66%E -5.06%K -47.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-11 21:30 |
| Pinnacle | 6.49I 15.41%NM 14.94%EV +2.34%E +0.361%K +0.427%G +0.010% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.06%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-11 21:34 |
| DraftKings | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.44%E -0.230%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.82%E -4.27%K -37.07%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-11 21:34 |
| Bovada | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.44%E -0.230%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.82%E -4.27%K -37.07%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-11 21:39 |
| Caesars | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -1.44%E -0.230%K -0.274%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.82%E -4.27%K -37.07%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-11 21:23 |
| 888sport | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -3.81%E -0.624%K -0.746%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -5.66%E -5.06%K -47.18%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-11 12:54 |
| Grosvenor | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:04 |
| Unibet | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:09 |
| TABtouch | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:04 |
| Virgin Bet | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:04 |
| LiveScore Bet | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:04 |
| ATG (SE) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:04 |
| betPARX | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:04 |
| Bally Bet | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:04 |
| BetRivers | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-11 14:04 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.82%E -4.27%K -37.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 12:54 |
| PlayUp | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.38%E -0.897%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.82%E -4.27%K -37.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-11 19:54 |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -9.33%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -3.13%E -2.73%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-11 21:38 |
| SportsBet | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.33%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-08 02:15 |
| Bet Right | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -9.33%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -3.98%E -3.49%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-11 21:04 |
| Betr (AU) | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -9.33%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.82%E -4.27%K -37.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-11 12:54 |
| Coolbet | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.91%EV -10.11%E -1.77%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.09%EV -2.29%E -1.98%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-09 03:40 |
| FanDuel | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -11.69%E -2.09%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.29%E -1.98%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-10 21:55 |
| TAB | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -13.27%E -2.41%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.13%E -2.73%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-09 03:49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -17.21%E -3.28%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -4.82%E -4.27%K -37.07%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-11 21:39 |
| Paddy Power | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -21.15%E -4.23%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -1.45%E -1.24%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-08 02:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -21.15%E -4.23%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -1.45%E -1.24%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-08 07:24 |
| BetAnything | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -21.15%E -4.23%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -3.13%E -2.73%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-11 21:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig | 6.45I 15.50%NM 15.47% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.53% | 0.2% | 2026-07-11 21:39 |
| Matchbook | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 0.8% | 2026-07-11 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 0.8% | 2026-07-11 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 0.8% | 2026-07-11 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 0.8% | 2026-07-11 21:40 |
| Polymarket | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19% | 1.2% | 2026-07-11 20:30 |
| ProphetX | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.47% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.53% | 1.7% | 2026-07-11 21:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.36% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.81% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83% | 9.1% | 2026-07-10 06:30 |