The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Joel Faglier v Javad Mahjoub

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 22:50 UTC

Final: Joel Faglier 1–0 Javad Mahjoub

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joel Faglier (Local)

Prediction 54.74%1.83fair odd
EV -0.919%
Edge -0.508%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.58%54.73%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.731.731.8163.69%57.73%57.80%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Javad Mahjoub (Visit)

Prediction 45.26%2.21fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.42%45.27%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.102.102.1652.08%47.72%47.62%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joel Faglier (Local): 54.74%; Javad Mahjoub (Visit): 45.26%. For Joel Faglier (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.81, with an expected value of -0.919%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -0.919%E -0.508%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -7.67%E -3.76%K -7.38%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 05:34
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.47%E -0.815%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.48%E -4.74%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 22:39
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.11%E -1.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 20:14
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.11%E -1.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 13:50
BetAnything🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.11%E -1.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.48%E -4.74%K -9.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 22:30
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV -3.66%E -2.08%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -2.24%E -1.04%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-17 21:05
FanDuel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.66%E -2.08%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-17 14:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -4.20%E -2.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -2.69%E -1.25%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-17 22:44
ReBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.20%E -2.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -3.60%E -1.69%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 10:20
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.20%E -2.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-17 22:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.20%E -2.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 06:38
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.20%E -2.40%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:55
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.75%E -2.73%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.69%E -1.25%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-17 22:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.75%E -2.73%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 10:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.23%EV -4.75%E -2.73%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.77%EV -10.39%E -5.25%K -10.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 19:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 10:10
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 10:10
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 10:10
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 10:10
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 10:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 10:10
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.05%E -1.91%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 10:08
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 06:39
TAB🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 01:24
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.30%E -3.06%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.22%E -3.52%K -6.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 22:45
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.85%E -3.40%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -2.69%E -1.25%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 14:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.85%E -3.40%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 13:49
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -6.94%E -4.08%K -9.91%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -3.60%E -1.69%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-17 14:35
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.58%E -5.14%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 20:15
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.58%E -5.14%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 20:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.58%E -5.14%K -12.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.96%E -2.36%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 20:15
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.01%EV -14.06%E -8.95%K -24.66%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 44.99%EV -13.10%E -6.82%K -14.24%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-16 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.81I 55.25%NM 55.31%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.69%-0.1%2026-10-17 22:19
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-10-17 22:45
Matchbook◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%0.7%2026-10-17 22:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%0.8%2026-10-17 22:45
Polymarket◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-10-17 22:30
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-10-17 22:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.3%2026-10-17 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.3%2026-10-17 22:35
ProphetX◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.39%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.61%1.4%2026-10-17 22:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.76%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.41%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%8.8%2026-10-17 21:05