The School of Odds
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Joel Alvarez v Yaroslav Amosov

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 00:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joel Alvarez (Local)

Prediction 37.16%2.69fair odd
EV +0.339%
Edge +0.126%
Kelly +0.200%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.56%37.11%37.11%38.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.532.502.7041.67%39.47%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yaroslav Amosov (Visit)

Prediction 62.84%1.59fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.22%62.89%62.89%64.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.531.531.5667.11%65.44%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joel Alvarez (Local): 37.16%; Yaroslav Amosov (Visit): 62.84%. For Joel Alvarez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.339%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV +0.339%E +0.126%K +0.200%G +0.001%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -6.37%E -4.28%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-10 00:08
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -2.63%E -1.01%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -3.23%E -2.10%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-10 00:09
Coolbet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -2.63%E -1.01%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -3.23%E -2.10%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-10 00:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.23%E -2.10%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-09 23:39
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.49%E -2.95%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-08 16:24
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.49%E -2.95%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-08 16:25
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.38%E -1.30%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.49%E -2.95%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 00:09
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -5.24%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.97%E -1.27%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 23:08
BetAnything🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -5.24%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.23%E -2.10%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-09 23:35
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.24%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-06 13:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.24%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-06 13:24
Neds🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.24%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-06 13:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.24%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.49%E -2.95%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 23:49
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.24%E -2.05%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.49%E -2.95%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-10 00:09
FanDuel🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -5.61%E -2.21%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -3.23%E -2.10%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-09 23:54
SportsBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -5.98%E -2.36%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -4.49%E -2.95%K -8.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:54
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 10:58
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 20:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 10:55
TABtouch🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 00:00
Unibet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 23:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 23:59
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 00:00
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 00:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 00:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 23:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 00:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 00:00
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-03 23:20
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.09%E -2.84%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.74%E -3.83%K -11.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-08 06:50
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.95%E -3.65%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.86%E -2.52%K -7.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 13:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -10.81%E -4.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -4.49%E -2.95%K -8.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-10 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.73I 36.63%NM 36.66%1.58I 63.29%NM 63.34%-0.1%2026-05-09 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-05-10 00:10
Matchbook◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%0.5%2026-05-10 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-05-10 00:09
Novig◎2.77I 36.10%NM 35.88%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.12%0.6%2026-05-10 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.87%1.0%2026-05-10 00:10
ProphetX◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%2.4%2026-05-10 00:09

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 34.78%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.37%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.1%2026-05-09 23:59