The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Joel Alvarez v Bryce Logan

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joel Alvarez (Local)

Prediction 86.92%1.15fair odd
EV +4.30%
Edge +3.59%
Kelly +21.52%
Growth +0.926%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.95%86.92%86.92%94.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.121.101.2098.04%89.50%90.91%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bryce Logan (Visit)

Prediction 13.08%7.64fair odd
EV +109.29%
Edge +6.83%
Kelly +7.29%
Growth +7.96%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.99%13.08%13.08%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.506.585.8016.0022.22%15.19%17.24%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joel Alvarez (Local): 86.92%; Bryce Logan (Visit): 13.08%. For Bryce Logan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +109.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -11.34%E -11.12%K -567.11%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +109.29%E +6.83%K +7.29%G +7.96%4.3%2026-05-02 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.39%E -3.99%K -43.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -14.98%E -2.30%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 23:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.39%E -3.99%K -43.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -14.98%E -2.30%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 23:55
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -4.39%E -3.99%K -43.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -14.98%E -2.30%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 23:55
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -4.39%E -3.99%K -43.89%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -24.13%E -4.16%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 23:54
Bally Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -4.39%E -3.99%K -43.89%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -24.13%E -4.16%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 23:55
LeoVegas🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.18%EV -5.26%E -4.82%K -58.42%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -24.13%E -4.16%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 23:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.19%EV -6.13%E -5.67%K -76.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.81%EV -24.79%E -4.31%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 23:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV +4.30%E +3.59%K +21.52%G +0.926%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -37.87%E -7.97%K -10.10%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-02 23:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV +4.30%E +3.59%K +21.52%G +0.926%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -41.14%E -9.14%K -11.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 23:45
Neds🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV +4.30%E +3.59%K +21.52%G +0.926%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -41.14%E -9.14%K -11.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 23:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.