Language:English
Joaquin Buckley v Sean Brady
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joaquin Buckley (Local)
Prediction 60.15%1.66fair odd
EV -0.753%
Edge -0.456%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.69%60.05%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.581.601.6568.97%63.14%62.50%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sean Brady (Visit)
Prediction 39.85%2.51fair odd
EV +9.59%
Edge +3.49%
Kelly +5.48%
Growth +0.525%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%39.31%39.95%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.212.392.352.7545.25%41.93%42.55%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joaquin Buckley (Local): 60.15%; Sean Brady (Visit): 39.85%. For Sean Brady (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.59%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -12.78%E -8.82%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +9.59%E +3.49%K +5.48%G +0.525% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -9.78%E -6.52%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +5.60%E +2.11%K +3.40%G +0.190% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 01:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -9.78%E -6.52%K -19.55%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +5.60%E +2.11%K +3.40%G +0.190% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -10.98%E -7.42%K -22.87%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV +5.60%E +2.11%K +3.40%G +0.190% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.63%EV -10.98%E -7.42%K -22.87%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -1.17%E -0.472%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 01:42 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.69%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.31%EV -1.57%E -0.636%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.17%E -3.95%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -2.37%E -0.966%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 01:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -7.97%E -5.21%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -2.37%E -0.966%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.77%E -4.37%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -0.753%E -0.456%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.16%E -1.96%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-10 01:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -4.36%E -2.74%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.97%E -5.21%K -15.04%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.00%EV -1.35%E -0.826%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.00%EV -5.95%E -2.52%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -0.753%E -0.456%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -7.15%E -3.07%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-10 01:48 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -0.753%E -0.456%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-10 01:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.56%E -1.58%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 01:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.56%E -1.58%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 01:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.56%E -1.58%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.90%EV -7.37%E -4.79%K -13.65%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -8.34%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.56%E -1.58%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.34%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.56%E -1.58%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.34%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.16%EV -4.36%E -2.74%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 41.84%EV -11.93%E -5.40%K -9.86%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.86% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 40.14% | 0.0% | 2026-05-10 01:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-10 01:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-05-10 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71% | 2.4% | 2026-05-10 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71% | 2.4% | 2026-05-10 01:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.40% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.60% | 3.5% | 2026-05-10 01:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62% | 4.5% | 2026-05-10 01:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.17% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.98% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 01:42 |