The School of Odds
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Joaquin Buckley v Mike Malott

2026-10-17 21:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Joaquin Buckley (Local)

Prediction 42.57%2.35fair odd
EV +0.463%
Edge +0.196%
Kelly +0.340%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.70%42.42%42.61%43.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.222.232.3649.02%45.13%44.84%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mike Malott (Visit)

Prediction 57.43%1.74fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -6.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.28%57.58%57.39%59.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.641.661.6766.23%60.92%60.24%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Joaquin Buckley (Local): 42.57%; Mike Malott (Visit): 57.43%. For Joaquin Buckley (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.36, producing a positive expected value of +0.463%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV +0.463%E +0.196%K +0.340%G +0.002%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -6.96%E -4.30%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 19:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.81%EV -1.67%E -0.721%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.19%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-10 14:00
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.79%E -1.68%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:54
Caesars🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.22%E -1.88%K -3.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:54
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:54
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:54
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:55
Bally Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.07%E -2.27%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 17:29
ReBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -5.50%E -2.48%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -7.54%E -4.68%K -12.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:55
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.54%E -4.68%K -12.35%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.11%E -5.07%K -13.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 13:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.09%E -2.45%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.61%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.38%EV -10.41%E -6.67%K -18.58%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-10 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 42.54%EV -13.16%E -6.45%K -12.65%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 57.46%EV -13.28%E -8.79%K -26.04%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-10 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%10.4%2026-10-10 19:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.46%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.69%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.85%6.3%2026-10-10 15:45