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Joaquin Buckley v Mike Malott
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Joaquin Buckley (Local)
Prediction 45.12%2.22fair odd
EV +2.41%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.90%
Growth +0.046%
assuming max odds 2.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.82%45.16%45.17%48.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.082.072.2754.05%48.04%48.31%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mike Malott (Visit)
Prediction 54.88%1.82fair odd
EV +2.08%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +2.42%
Growth +0.050%
assuming max odds 1.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.56%54.84%54.83%57.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.741.8661.73%57.48%57.47%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Joaquin Buckley (Local): 45.12%; Mike Malott (Visit): 54.88%. For Joaquin Buckley (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.41%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -10.67%E -5.39%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV +2.08%E +1.12%K +2.42%G +0.050% | 4.3% | 2026-10-17 21:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -12.02%E -6.17%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV +0.437%E +0.239%K +0.526%G +0.002% | 5.9% | 2026-10-17 21:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -6.61%E -3.19%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -1.21%E -0.672%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-14 15:33 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.77%E -4.88%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.21%E -0.672%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 23:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 23:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 23:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 23:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 23:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 23:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 23:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 23:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -7.96%E -3.90%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -2.31%E -1.30%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-17 23:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.86%E -1.61%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-17 23:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.35%E -2.05%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.40%E -1.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -5.26%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -3.40%E -1.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -3.40%E -1.93%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-16 10:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.95%E -2.26%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.00%E -1.40%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.50%E -2.59%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-18 02:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.26%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.50%E -2.59%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -2.10%E -0.966%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-18 02:17 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -2.55%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.26%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-18 02:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.26%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-18 01:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.77%E -4.88%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.05%E -2.92%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-16 22:09 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -1.65%E -0.755%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -5.60%E -3.26%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.00%E -1.40%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.60%E -3.26%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-18 01:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -1.65%E -0.755%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -6.15%E -3.60%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-18 01:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.00%E -1.40%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.15%E -3.60%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-18 01:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.00%E -1.40%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.15%E -3.60%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-18 01:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.26%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.15%E -3.60%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-18 02:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV +2.41%E +1.06%K +1.90%G +0.046% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -6.70%E -3.94%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV +1.06%E +0.474%K +0.856%G +0.009% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -7.80%E -4.64%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-18 01:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.80%E -4.64%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.26%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.34%E -5.00%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 04:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.26%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.34%E -5.00%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-15 06:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.26%E -2.50%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.34%E -5.00%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-17 23:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 46.99%EV -16.53%E -8.94%K -19.45%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 53.01%EV -9.99%E -6.09%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-10-17 23:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.14%EV -7.51%E -3.66%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.86%EV -11.09%E -6.84%K -17.88%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.14% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.86% | -0.1% | 2026-10-18 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-10-18 01:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.21I 45.25%NM 44.75% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.25% | 1.1% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80% | 1.9% | 2026-10-18 02:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30% | 4.5% | 2026-10-18 02:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.21% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.2% | 2026-10-18 01:45 |