Language:English
Jiri Prochazka v Carlos Ulberg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jiri Prochazka (Local)
Prediction 49.44%2.02fair odd
EV +1.35%
Edge +0.657%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%49.81%49.20%56.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.921.912.0558.82%52.20%52.36%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlos Ulberg (Visit)
Prediction 50.56%1.98fair odd
EV +11.24%
Edge +5.11%
Kelly +9.37%
Growth +1.05%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.59%50.19%50.80%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.901.912.2055.56%52.53%52.36%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jiri Prochazka (Local): 49.44%; Carlos Ulberg (Visit): 50.56%. For Carlos Ulberg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.98. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -15.96%E -9.39%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV +11.24%E +5.11%K +9.37%G +1.05% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -15.96%E -9.39%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV +11.24%E +5.11%K +9.37%G +1.05% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -11.01%E -6.12%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +1.13%E +0.563%K +1.13%G +0.013% | 5.6% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -7.55%E -4.04%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -1.40%E -0.719%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:43 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -6.07%E -3.19%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -1.91%E -0.984%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.65%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.92%E -1.52%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -5.08%E -2.65%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -2.92%E -1.52%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.57%E -2.92%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 03:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.57%E -2.92%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -6.07%E -3.19%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -6.07%E -3.19%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -6.07%E -3.19%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -6.56%E -3.47%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -6.56%E -3.47%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -6.56%E -3.47%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -6.56%E -3.47%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -6.56%E -3.47%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -6.56%E -3.47%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -3.43%E -1.79%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -11.01%E -6.12%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -3.93%E -2.07%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -3.10%E -1.58%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -4.44%E -2.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV -6.56%E -3.47%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -4.94%E -2.63%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.60%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.45%E -2.91%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -2.11%E -1.07%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -5.95%E -3.20%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -2.11%E -1.07%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -5.95%E -3.20%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV +1.35%E +0.657%K +1.28%G +0.017% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -2.61%E -1.32%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.60%E -1.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.57%E -2.92%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -6.46%E -3.49%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -0.137%E -0.068%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.13%E -0.563%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-12 03:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -1.13%E -0.563%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.57%E -2.92%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.47%E -4.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-12 03:43 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +1.35%E +0.657%K +1.28%G +0.017% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 03:42 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +1.35%E +0.657%K +1.28%G +0.017% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -8.99%E -4.99%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 0.7% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-04-12 03:45 |