Language:English
Jingnan Xiong v Julia Polastri
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jingnan Xiong (Local)
Prediction 33.09%3.02fair odd
EV -0.727%
Edge -0.242%
Kelly -0.364%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%33.05%33.03%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.882.903.0036.36%34.67%34.48%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Julia Polastri (Visit)
Prediction 66.91%1.49fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -6.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%66.95%66.97%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.421.421.4574.63%70.45%70.42%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jingnan Xiong (Local): 33.09%; Julia Polastri (Visit): 66.91%. For Jingnan Xiong (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -0.727%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.727%E -0.242%K -0.364%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-25 14:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.99%E -3.51%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-28 13:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.99%E -3.51%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-28 13:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 14:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 14:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 14:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 14:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 14:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 14:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-25 12:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -2.38%E -0.807%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 14:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV -2.71%E -0.923%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%EV -2.98%E -2.06%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-29 06:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -4.04%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-22 14:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -4.04%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 05:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.04%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.99%E -3.51%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-29 06:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.04%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-29 07:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -4.37%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 06:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -4.37%E -1.51%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 06:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -4.70%E -1.63%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-28 15:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.41%EV -5.03%E -1.75%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.59%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-29 07:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.49%EV -5.36%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.51%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 06:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -5.36%E -1.87%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-28 15:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.69%E -2.00%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-29 07:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -5.69%E -2.00%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-29 06:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -5.69%E -2.00%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-29 06:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.69%E -2.00%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-28 21:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -7.35%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-29 01:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -7.35%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.99%E -3.51%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-29 06:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.00%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-29 06:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.00%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.00%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.00%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-28 15:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.76%EV -9.00%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.24%EV -10.34%E -7.72%K -30.42%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-23 14:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.82% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 67.18% | -0.1% | 2026-08-29 07:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 1.4% | 2026-08-29 07:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 1.4% | 2026-08-29 07:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 1.4% | 2026-08-29 07:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11% | 1.4% | 2026-08-29 07:05 |
| Novig◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.21% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.79% | 2.4% | 2026-08-29 07:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.17% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.83% | 11.7% | 2026-08-29 07:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.31% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71% | 8.6% | 2026-08-28 16:05 |