Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jingnan Xiong v Julia Polastri

2026-08-29 10:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

35%

65%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jingnan Xiong (Local)

Prediction 35.47%2.82fair odd

EV -0.317%

Edge -0.113%

Kelly -0.175%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.35%35.47%35.47%36.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.652.732.732.8137.74%36.63%36.63%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Julia Polastri (Visit)

Prediction 64.53%1.55fair odd

EV -1.28%

Edge -0.834%

Kelly -2.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.40%64.53%64.53%65.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.471.501.501.5368.03%66.67%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jingnan Xiong (Local): 35.47%; Julia Polastri (Visit): 64.53%. For Jingnan Xiong (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.81, with an expected value of -0.317%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -0.317%E -0.113%K -0.175%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV -5.15%E -3.50%K -10.95%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-08-20 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -5.99%E -2.26%K -3.63%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -1.28%E -0.834%K -2.41%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-08-20 15:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.82I 35.46%NM 33.15%	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.02%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%	7.0%	2026-08-20 19:49

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