The School of Odds
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Jesus Santos Aguilar v Su Mudaerji

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 23:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jesus Santos Aguilar (Local)

Prediction 38.99%2.56fair odd
EV +11.13%
Edge +3.91%
Kelly +6.02%
Growth +0.670%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.72%38.53%38.98%41.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.532.452.8543.48%39.53%40.90%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Su Mudaerji (Visit)

Prediction 61.01%1.64fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.82%61.47%61.02%66.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.541.561.6269.93%65.09%63.90%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jesus Santos Aguilar (Local): 38.99%; Su Mudaerji (Visit): 61.01%. For Jesus Santos Aguilar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.13%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV +11.13%E +3.91%K +6.02%G +0.670%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -11.54%E -7.96%K -25.65%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 23:39
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV +11.13%E +3.91%K +6.02%G +0.670%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -11.54%E -7.96%K -25.65%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 23:39
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +7.23%E +2.63%K +4.13%G +0.299%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -11.54%E -7.96%K -25.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 18:49
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +7.23%E +2.63%K +4.13%G +0.299%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -12.15%E -8.44%K -27.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 21:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV +7.23%E +2.63%K +4.13%G +0.299%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -12.76%E -8.92%K -29.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 21:29
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV +5.28%E +1.96%K +3.11%G +0.164%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -10.32%E -7.02%K -21.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 23:39
Bovada🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.04%EV +4.50%E +1.68%K +2.68%G +0.121%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.96%EV -7.88%E -5.22%K -15.45%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-07 23:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +3.33%E +1.26%K +2.02%G +0.067%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -8.49%E -5.66%K -16.98%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-07 23:29
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -0.565%E -0.221%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -6.05%E -3.93%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-07 23:19
Fliff🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -0.565%E -0.221%K -0.364%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -8.49%E -5.66%K -16.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 23:40
Pinnacle🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 38.20%EV -0.955%E -0.376%K -0.620%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.80%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 23:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.46%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.83%E -3.10%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 23:36
FanDuel🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.30%EV -4.85%E -1.99%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.70%EV -3.61%E -2.29%K -6.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 23:29
SportsBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -5.63%E -2.33%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 23:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -1.17%E -0.723%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 23:39
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -1.78%E -1.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-07 23:26
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.39%E -1.49%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-07 23:29
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.61%E -2.29%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 23:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.41%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.61%E -2.29%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 23:24
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.19%E -3.02%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 23:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.19%E -3.02%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.22%E -2.69%K -7.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 23:30
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.19%E -3.02%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -8.49%E -5.66%K -16.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 23:30
BetAnything🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -8.36%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -1.78%E -1.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 23:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -10.31%E -4.48%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -1.78%E -1.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.62I 38.17%NM 38.21%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.79%-0.1%2026-03-07 23:36
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%0.7%2026-03-07 23:40
Matchbook◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%0.7%2026-03-07 23:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23%1.1%2026-03-07 23:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.94%1.62I 61.73%NM 61.06%1.1%2026-03-07 23:40
Novig◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.80%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.20%1.5%2026-03-07 23:40
ProphetX◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.65%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.35%1.9%2026-03-07 23:40
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%3.0%2026-03-07 23:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.29%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.87%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%8.5%2026-03-07 23:04