Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jeremiah Wells v Myktybek Orolbai

2026-08-16 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

18%

82%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jeremiah Wells (Local)

Prediction 18.24%5.48fair odd

EV -0.421%

Edge -0.077%

Kelly -0.094%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.65%18.42%18.08%19.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.755.145.255.4621.05%19.45%19.05%18.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Myktybek Orolbai (Visit)

Prediction 81.76%1.22fair odd

EV -1.89%

Edge -1.57%

Kelly -9.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.10%81.58%81.92%82.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.171.171.2087.72%85.57%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jeremiah Wells (Local): 18.24%; Myktybek Orolbai (Visit): 81.76%. For Jeremiah Wells (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.48. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.46, with an expected value of -0.421%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	5.46I 18.32%NM 17.65%EV -0.421%E -0.077%K -0.094%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.35%EV -4.34%E -3.71%K -25.52%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-04 14:49
Caesars	5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.777%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.34%E -3.71%K -25.52%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-04 22:15
Betsson	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -4.25%E -0.810%K -1.00%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.79%E -5.96%K -48.51%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-04 20:29
NordicBet	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -4.25%E -0.810%K -1.00%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.79%E -5.96%K -48.51%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-08-04 20:29
DraftKings	5.10I 19.61%NM 18.79%EV -6.99%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.21%EV -3.52%E -2.98%K -19.56%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-04 21:09
Pinnacle	4.88I 20.49%NM 19.74%EV -11.00%E -2.25%K -2.83%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.26%EV -1.89%E -1.57%K -9.43%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-04 14:20
PlayUp	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -13.37%E -2.81%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -3.52%E -2.98%K -19.56%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-04 17:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig	5.00I 20.00%NM 16.67%	1.00I 100.00%NM 83.33%	20.0%	2026-08-04 21:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	4.91I 20.37%NM 19.08%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.08%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%	6.7%	2026-08-04 21:54