Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jeisla Chaves v Yuneisy Duben

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 21:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

69%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jeisla Chaves (Local)

Prediction 69.27%1.44fair odd

EV -3.02%

Edge -2.15%

Kelly -7.54%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.18%69.37%69.35%71.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.371.371.4075.19%73.20%72.99%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yuneisy Duben (Visit)

Prediction 30.73%3.25fair odd

EV +1.39%

Edge +0.422%

Kelly +0.605%

Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.94%30.63%30.65%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.003.163.143.3033.33%31.66%31.85%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jeisla Chaves (Local): 69.27%; Yuneisy Duben (Visit): 30.73%. For Yuneisy Duben (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.25. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.39%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.79%E -4.25%K -16.07%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV +1.39%E +0.422%K +0.605%G +0.008%	3.8%	2026-06-06 13:20
SportsBet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -7.17%E -5.35%K -21.09%G +0.000%	3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV +1.09%E +0.330%K +0.474%G +0.005%	5.0%	2026-06-06 13:19
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -7.17%E -5.35%K -21.09%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -0.144%E -0.044%K -0.064%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-06 16:19
Grosvenor🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -7.17%E -5.35%K -21.09%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -0.144%E -0.044%K -0.064%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-06 16:19
LeoVegas🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -7.17%E -5.35%K -21.09%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -0.144%E -0.044%K -0.064%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-06 16:19
Virgin Bet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -7.17%E -5.35%K -21.09%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -0.144%E -0.044%K -0.064%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-06 16:19
TABtouch🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -7.17%E -5.35%K -21.09%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -0.144%E -0.044%K -0.064%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-06 16:19
Unibet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -7.17%E -5.35%K -21.09%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -0.144%E -0.044%K -0.064%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-06-06 16:19
Paddy Power🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.86%E -5.91%K -23.83%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -0.144%E -0.044%K -0.064%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-06 12:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.86%E -5.91%K -23.83%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -0.144%E -0.044%K -0.064%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-06 12:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.86%E -5.91%K -23.83%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -0.144%E -0.044%K -0.064%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-06-06 16:19
Coolbet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 70.07%EV -4.40%E -3.19%K -11.58%G +0.000%	3.23I 30.96%NM 29.93%EV -0.758%E -0.235%K -0.340%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-06-06 15:09
Bovada🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -5.09%E -3.72%K -13.77%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.68%E -0.525%K -0.764%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-06 19:28
Pinnacle🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -3.02%E -2.15%K -7.54%G +0.000%	3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV -2.29%E -0.722%K -1.05%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-06-06 19:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.02%E -2.15%K -7.54%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-06-06 19:59
BetUS🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.71%E -2.67%K -9.51%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-06 20:09
Betsson🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.71%E -2.67%K -9.51%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-06 15:28
NordicBet🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.71%E -2.67%K -9.51%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-06 15:29
DraftKings🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.71%E -2.67%K -9.51%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-06 19:49
Neds🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.40%E -3.19%K -11.58%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-06-06 21:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.40%E -3.19%K -11.58%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-06-06 21:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.09%E -3.72%K -13.77%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-06 13:09
Betway🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.79%E -4.25%K -16.07%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-06 09:40
PlayUp🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.79%E -4.25%K -16.07%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.75%E -1.53%K -2.26%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-06-06 20:10
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.02%E -2.15%K -7.54%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.82%E -2.61%K -3.91%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-06 19:49
BetAnything🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.02%E -2.15%K -7.54%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -7.82%E -2.61%K -3.91%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-06-06 20:09
Bet Right🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.71%E -2.67%K -9.51%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -7.82%E -2.61%K -3.91%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-06-06 19:49
Betr (AU)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.09%E -3.72%K -13.77%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -7.82%E -2.61%K -3.91%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-06-06 19:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.96%	3.33I 30.03%NM 30.04%	-0.0%	2026-06-06 19:30
BetOpenly◎	1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70%	0.2%	2026-06-06 19:49
Matchbook◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%	0.7%	2026-06-06 21:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%	1.2%	2026-06-06 21:19
Novig◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.87%	3.27I 30.58%NM 30.13%	1.5%	2026-06-06 21:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26%	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74%	1.7%	2026-06-06 21:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26%	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74%	1.7%	2026-06-06 21:19
ProphetX◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%	1.7%	2026-06-06 21:19

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.86%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.29%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%	8.4%	2026-06-06 19:48