The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jean Silva v Yair Rodriguez

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 23:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jean Silva (Local)

Prediction 73.76%1.36fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -2.58%
Kelly -10.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.59%73.70%73.53%75.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.281.281.3181.30%78.18%78.13%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yair Rodriguez (Visit)

Prediction 26.24%3.81fair odd
EV -0.291%
Edge -0.077%
Kelly -0.104%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.60%26.30%26.47%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.613.703.8031.75%27.71%27.03%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jean Silva (Local): 73.76%; Yair Rodriguez (Visit): 26.24%. For Yair Rodriguez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -0.291%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.54%EV -3.37%E -2.58%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.46%EV -4.49%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-16 04:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -3.37%E -2.58%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -4.75%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-16 04:29
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.11%E -3.16%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.79%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-17 10:29
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.11%E -3.16%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.79%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-17 10:29
Caesars🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.85%E -3.76%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -1.60%E -0.427%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-09 22:41
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.85%E -3.76%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -1.60%E -0.427%K -0.583%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 15:29
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.85%E -3.76%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -2.91%E -0.788%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-16 04:29
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.85%E -3.76%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -6.85%E -1.93%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 10:29
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.85%E -3.76%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.16%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-07 08:05
ReBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.73%EV -4.85%E -3.76%K -16.72%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.27%EV -9.74%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-17 19:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.59%E -4.36%K -19.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.788%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 15:30
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.59%E -4.36%K -19.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.788%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.59%E -4.36%K -19.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.788%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 15:29
BetRivers🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.59%E -4.36%K -19.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.788%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 15:30
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.59%E -4.36%K -19.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.788%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 15:25
Bally Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.59%E -4.36%K -19.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.788%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.59%E -4.36%K -19.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.788%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 15:30
betPARX🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.59%E -4.36%K -19.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -2.91%E -0.788%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 15:30
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.59%E -4.36%K -19.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.54%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 10:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -7.06%E -5.60%K -27.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.16%E -2.33%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-17 00:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.59%EV -7.80%E -6.24%K -31.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -17.35%E -5.51%K -8.07%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-16 04:34
Betsson🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -8.54%E -6.88%K -35.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -0.291%E -0.077%K -0.104%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 23:34
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -8.54%E -6.88%K -35.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -0.291%E -0.077%K -0.104%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 23:34
Grosvenor🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.43%EV -9.27%E -7.54%K -40.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -10.79%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 15:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.12I 89.29%NM 47.17%1.00I 100.00%NM 52.83%89.3%2026-08-19 22:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.55%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.61%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%6.7%2026-08-18 14:25