Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jean Silva v Jose Delgado

2026-09-12 18:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

79%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jean Silva (Local)

Prediction 78.63%1.27fair odd

EV -2.50%

Edge -2.02%

Kelly -10.42%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

77.62%78.85%78.63%80.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.151.211.231.2486.96%82.47%81.30%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jose Delgado (Visit)

Prediction 21.37%4.68fair odd

EV +1.52%

Edge +0.320%

Kelly +0.405%

Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.49%21.15%21.37%22.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.304.534.534.7523.26%22.10%22.10%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jean Silva (Local): 78.63%; Jose Delgado (Visit): 21.37%. For Jose Delgado (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.68. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.75, producing a positive expected value of +1.52%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -9.58%E -8.33%K -63.86%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV +1.52%E +0.320%K +0.405%G +0.006%	8.0%	2026-08-20 19:03
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 78.58%EV -2.50%E -2.02%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.55I 21.98%NM 21.42%EV -2.76%E -0.606%K -0.776%G +0.000%	2.6%	2026-08-20 19:05
Caesars🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.07%E -3.34%K -18.52%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.82%E -0.850%K -1.09%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-20 22:57
DraftKings🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -2.50%E -2.02%K -10.42%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -8.10%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-20 22:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 74.45%	3.91I 25.58%NM 22.85%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.71%	11.9%	2026-08-20 19:24

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