The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani v Farman Hasanov

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 00:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Local)

Prediction 71.11%1.41fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -4.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.28%71.32%70.96%74.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.321.311.3883.33%75.97%76.34%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Farman Hasanov (Visit)

Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV +9.79%
Edge +2.58%
Kelly +3.50%
Growth +0.343%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.15%28.68%29.04%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.373.403.8033.33%29.70%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (Local): 71.11%; Farman Hasanov (Visit): 28.89%. For Farman Hasanov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.79%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -8.98%E -7.02%K -32.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV +9.79%E +2.58%K +3.50%G +0.343%4.4%2026-10-31 22:55
Bet Right🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -9.69%E -7.63%K -35.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +8.35%E +2.23%K +3.04%G +0.254%5.4%2026-11-01 00:10
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -10.41%E -8.26%K -40.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV +8.35%E +2.23%K +3.04%G +0.254%6.0%2026-10-31 22:55
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%3.8%2026-10-31 20:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.85%E -5.23%K -22.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%4.9%2026-10-31 17:30
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:30
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:30
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:35
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:30
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +1.13%E +0.322%K +0.450%G +0.005%5.5%2026-10-31 17:34
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -0.319%E -0.092%K -0.130%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-26 19:00
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -6.14%E -4.65%K -19.18%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -1.19%E -0.347%K -0.490%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 07:35
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.72%E -3.52%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -1.76%E -0.519%K -0.735%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-31 00:20
Caesars🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.76%E -0.519%K -0.735%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-26 19:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.76%E -0.519%K -0.735%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-31 22:15
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.76%E -0.519%K -0.735%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-27 12:22
BetUS🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-01 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.14%E -4.65%K -19.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.65%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 21:10
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.39%EV -1.87%E -1.36%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.61%EV -5.23%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-01 00:10
ReBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56%EV -3.29%E -2.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44%EV -5.81%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 21:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.29%E -2.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 21:05
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.29%E -2.42%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-31 22:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-31 22:45
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-31 22:40
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.10%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 00:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.28%EV -2.58%E -1.89%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.72%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-31 21:04
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-28 16:49
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-28 17:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-28 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 72.73%EV -14.67%E -12.23%K -73.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -7.54%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-31 17:30
BetAnything🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -8.99%E -2.85%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-01 00:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.43%EV -6.85%E -5.23%K -22.10%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.57%EV -9.85%E -3.16%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-31 22:49
TAB🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -4.01%E -2.97%K -11.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -10.43%E -3.36%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 00:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -7.56%E -5.82%K -25.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -11.88%E -3.89%K -5.79%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-01 00:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.43%E -4.08%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.32%E -4.44%K -6.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 21:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.87%3.43I 29.15%NM 29.13%0.1%2026-10-31 23:45
Novig◎1.38I 72.46%NM 72.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.88%0.5%2026-11-01 00:10
Polymarket◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75%1.0%2026-11-01 00:05
Kalshi◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-10-30 14:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-11-01 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-11-01 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-11-01 00:10
ProphetX◎1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%6.5%2026-11-01 00:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.61%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.52%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%7.2%2026-10-31 04:15

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