The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jason Jackson v Jeff Creighton

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 23:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jason Jackson (Local)

Prediction 83.33%1.20fair odd
EV +1.67%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +7.58%
Growth +0.126%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.63%83.33%83.33%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.181.191.2289.29%84.54%84.03%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jeff Creighton (Visit)

Prediction 16.67%6.00fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -0.725%
Kelly -0.877%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.67%16.67%16.67%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.524.105.7525.00%22.12%24.39%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jason Jackson (Local): 83.33%; Jeff Creighton (Visit): 16.67%. For Jason Jackson (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.20. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV +1.67%E +1.37%K +7.58%G +0.126%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -31.67%E -7.72%K -10.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 21:21
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV +1.67%E +1.37%K +7.58%G +0.126%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -33.33%E -8.33%K -11.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV +0.000%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -31.67%E -7.72%K -10.22%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 23:30
Grosvenor🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50%EV -0.833%E -0.700%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -31.67%E -7.72%K -10.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 23:32
LeoVegas🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -1.67%E -1.41%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -31.67%E -7.72%K -10.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-16 23:32
BetOnline.ag🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.17%E -3.62%K -27.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -4.17%E -0.725%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-16 23:10
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.67%E -5.95%K -55.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.33%E -1.52%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 23:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.00I 100.00%NM 99.01%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.99%1.0%2026-05-16 23:35