Language:English
Jan Blachowicz v Navajo Stirling
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jan Blachowicz (Local)
Prediction 26.10%3.83fair odd
EV +8.82%
Edge +2.12%
Kelly +2.78%
Growth +0.245%
assuming max odds 4.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.35%25.98%26.18%27.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.603.524.1730.77%27.76%28.37%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Navajo Stirling (Visit)
Prediction 73.90%1.35fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -10.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.05%74.02%73.82%76.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.291.291.3180.00%77.65%77.52%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jan Blachowicz (Local): 26.10%; Navajo Stirling (Visit): 73.90%. For Jan Blachowicz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.82%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.35%EV +8.82%E +2.12%K +2.78%G +0.245% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65%EV -6.14%E -4.84%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-01 18:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.52%EV +2.03%E +0.520%K +0.699%G +0.014% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.48%EV -6.14%E -4.84%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-01 18:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV +1.77%E +0.455%K +0.612%G +0.011% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -5.40%E -4.22%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 17:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +1.77%E +0.455%K +0.612%G +0.011% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -6.14%E -4.84%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 16:31 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV +0.469%E +0.122%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -5.40%E -4.22%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 18:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV +0.469%E +0.122%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -5.40%E -4.22%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 17:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV +0.469%E +0.122%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -5.40%E -4.22%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 18:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV +0.469%E +0.122%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.88%E -5.46%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 18:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -2.14%E -0.571%K -0.778%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.40%E -4.22%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-01 18:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -3.45%E -0.931%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.66%E -3.62%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-01 17:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -4.75%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.40%E -4.22%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 18:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.97%EV -5.53%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.03%EV -6.14%E -4.84%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-01 18:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.19%E -2.43%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 12:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.19%E -2.43%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 12:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.19%E -2.43%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 13:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.66%E -3.62%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-31 04:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.40%E -4.22%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-01 18:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.40%E -4.22%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-30 08:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -7.36%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-31 04:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -7.36%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -7.62%E -6.10%K -30.48%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-01 18:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.19%E -2.43%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 17:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-25 12:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 12:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 17:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 17:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 17:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 17:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 17:43 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 17:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 17:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 17:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 17:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-28 21:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.66%E -3.62%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 18:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.66%E -3.62%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 18:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.66%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.14%E -4.84%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-01 18:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -9.97%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -6.14%E -4.84%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-01 09:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -11.27%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.92%E -3.02%K -13.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-01 14:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -13.88%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -5.40%E -4.22%K -19.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-01 18:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -15.19%E -4.67%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.06%EV -6.88%E -5.46%K -26.46%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-01 17:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.77% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.23% | 0.1% | 2026-08-01 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 18:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 18:10 |
| Novig◎ | 4.08I 24.51%NM 24.30% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.70% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 18:44 |
| Polymarket◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23% | 0.9% | 2026-08-01 17:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23% | 0.9% | 2026-08-01 18:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61% | 2.5% | 2026-08-01 18:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 18:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.21% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.51% | 41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28% | 6.9% | 2026-08-01 18:15 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.