Jan Blachowicz v Navajo Stirling

2026-08-01 22:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

32%

68%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Jan Blachowicz (Local)

Prediction 31.73%3.15fair odd

EV +3.14%

Edge +0.965%

Kelly +1.39%

Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.81%31.73%31.73%33.66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.682.962.963.2537%34%34%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Navajo Stirling (Visit)

Prediction 68.27%1.46fair odd

EV -5.79%

Edge -4.20%

Kelly -15.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.34%68.27%68.27%70.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.361.371.371.3874%73%73%72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV +3.14%E +0.965%K +1.39%G +0.044%	1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -5.79%E -4.20%K -15.25%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-07-24 01:10
Betclic (FR)	2.68I 37.31%NM 33.66%EV -14.95%E -5.58%K -8.90%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 66.34%EV -7.16%E -5.26%K -19.89%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-07-24 06:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63%	1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37%	1.1%	2026-07-24 06:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.51%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.82%	7.3%	2026-07-24 01:15