The School of Odds

James Martin v Joey Hart

2026-07-25 02:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

James Martin (Local)

Prediction 40.30%2.48fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.30%40.30%40.30%45.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.022.152.022.4050%47%50%42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Joey Hart (Visit)

Prediction 59.70%1.67fair odd
EV +2.69%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +3.73%
Growth +0.100%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.01%59.70%59.70%59.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.721.7262%59%58%58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -18.60%E -9.21%K -18.23%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV +2.69%E +1.56%K +3.73%G +0.100%7.6%2026-07-24 10:05
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -18.60%E -9.21%K -18.23%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV +2.69%E +1.56%K +3.73%G +0.100%7.6%2026-07-24 10:05
BetOnline.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.28%E -1.37%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.28%E -2.03%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-24 10:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.19%BetOnline.ag 2.40 (41.7%) / Unibet 1.72 (58.3%)Show all 2 combinations
James Martin (Local)Joey Hart (Visit)Margin
BetOnline.ag 2.40 (41.7%)Unibet 1.72 (58.3%)+0.194%
BetOnline.ag 2.40 (41.7%)Grosvenor 1.72 (58.3%)+0.194%