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Jalin Turner v Kauê Fernandes

2026-08-16 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jalin Turner (Local)

Prediction 60.10%1.66fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.874%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.79%60.08%60.10%61.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.571.561.6465.79%63.57%64.31%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kauê Fernandes (Visit)

Prediction 39.90%2.51fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.918%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.29%39.92%39.90%41.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.342.402.402.4542.74%41.58%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jalin Turner (Local): 60.10%; Kauê Fernandes (Visit): 39.90%. For Jalin Turner (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.64, with an expected value of -1.43%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.64I 60.98%NM 58.79%EV -1.43%E -0.874%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.21%EV -6.64%E -2.84%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 20:05
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -2.64%E -1.63%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -5.84%E -2.47%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 21:14
BetOnline.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.24%E -2.01%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.25%E -0.918%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-04 19:44
Caesars1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.24%E -2.01%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.24%E -1.77%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-04 22:15
Unibet (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.24%E -4.00%K -11.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.24%E -2.65%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-04 20:04
PointsBet (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.84%E -4.41%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.25%E -0.918%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:09
Betr (AU)1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -7.44%E -4.83%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -2.25%E -0.918%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 20:09
Betsson1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.44%E -4.83%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.24%E -1.77%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 20:35
NordicBet1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.44%E -4.83%K -13.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -4.24%E -1.77%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 20:39
PlayUp1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -8.65%E -5.69%K -16.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.25%E -0.918%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-04 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-08-04 21:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.78%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%6.7%2026-08-04 20:05