Language:English
Jake Matthews v Carlston Harris
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jake Matthews (Local)
Prediction 80.01%1.25fair odd
EV -0.791%
Edge -0.638%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.50%79.84%80.17%81.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.191.191.2486.96%84.10%84.03%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlston Harris (Visit)
Prediction 19.99%5.00fair odd
EV +4.96%
Edge +0.945%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.058%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.22%20.16%19.83%22.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.824.855.2523.53%20.76%20.62%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jake Matthews (Local): 80.01%; Carlston Harris (Visit): 19.99%. For Carlston Harris (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.00. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.96%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +4.96%E +0.945%K +1.17%G +0.058% | 4.5% | 2026-05-30 07:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +4.96%E +0.945%K +1.17%G +0.058% | 4.5% | 2026-05-30 08:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +4.96%E +0.945%K +1.17%G +0.058% | 4.5% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.96%E +0.762%K +0.944%G +0.037% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.96%E +0.762%K +0.944%G +0.037% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.96%E +0.762%K +0.944%G +0.037% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.96%E +0.762%K +0.944%G +0.037% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.96%E +0.762%K +0.944%G +0.037% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.96%E +0.762%K +0.944%G +0.037% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV +3.96%E +0.762%K +0.944%G +0.037% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 08:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.74%EV -3.99%E -3.33%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 5.03I 19.88%NM 19.26%EV +0.564%E +0.112%K +0.140%G +0.001% | 3.2% | 2026-05-30 11:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.59%E -4.74%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -0.035%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 08:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.59%E -4.74%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -0.035%E -0.007%K -0.009%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-30 07:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.75%EV -5.59%E -4.74%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.25%EV -1.04%E -0.209%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-30 11:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.33%EV -3.99%E -3.33%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.67%EV -2.03%E -0.415%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-30 10:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.79%E -4.03%K -25.22%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -2.03%E -0.415%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-30 11:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -3.99%E -3.33%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -3.03%E -0.626%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-30 10:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -6.39%E -5.46%K -37.60%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -3.03%E -0.626%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 08:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -3.99%E -3.33%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -4.03%E -0.840%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-30 04:38 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.99%E -3.33%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -5.03%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-30 07:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -7.99%E -6.95%K -53.28%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -6.03%E -1.28%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-30 08:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -3.99%E -3.33%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-30 04:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -7.19%E -6.20%K -44.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -8.03%E -1.75%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-29 22:06 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.99%E -3.33%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-30 10:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.99%E -3.33%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.03%E -2.23%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-30 10:58 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.48%EV -2.39%E -1.96%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -11.03%E -2.48%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-29 15:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.39%E -1.96%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -12.03%E -2.73%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 19:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.39%E -1.96%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -12.03%E -2.73%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-29 19:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.99%E -3.33%K -19.96%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -12.03%E -2.73%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 08:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -4.79%E -4.03%K -25.22%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -13.03%E -3.00%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-30 10:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -2.39%E -1.96%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -13.43%E -3.10%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-29 16:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.50%EV -0.791%E -0.638%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.50%EV -14.63%E -3.43%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-29 00:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -2.39%E -1.96%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -15.03%E -3.54%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-30 08:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.98% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 18.02% | -0.0% | 2026-05-30 11:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.83% | 1.0% | 2026-05-30 11:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.14% | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.86% | 1.4% | 2026-05-30 11:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.21% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.79% | 1.8% | 2026-05-30 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.47% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.53% | 1.9% | 2026-05-30 11:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.47% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.53% | 1.9% | 2026-05-30 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62% | 3.3% | 2026-05-30 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62% | 3.3% | 2026-05-30 11:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.20% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 19.92% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.88% | 6.6% | 2026-05-30 11:00 |