The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Jafel Filho v Lucas Rocha

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jafel Filho (Local)

Prediction 71.63%1.40fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.830%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.47%71.62%71.73%73.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.331.3878.13%75.22%75.19%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lucas Rocha (Visit)

Prediction 28.37%3.53fair odd
EV -0.718%
Edge -0.205%
Kelly -0.287%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.78%28.38%28.27%30.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.143.333.383.5031.85%30.01%29.54%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jafel Filho (Local): 71.63%; Lucas Rocha (Visit): 28.37%. For Lucas Rocha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -0.718%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -1.15%E -0.830%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -9.23%E -2.88%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-18 04:15
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.47%EV -1.15%E -0.830%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.53%EV -10.93%E -3.48%K -5.11%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 04:15
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.40%EV -3.29%E -2.44%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.60%EV -4.41%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-20 02:00
PlayUp🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -3.29%E -2.44%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -10.65%E -3.38%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-20 06:00
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.01%E -2.99%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.55%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-19 04:00
Coolbet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.01%E -2.99%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.55%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-18 20:25
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.01%E -2.99%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -3.55%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-19 02:38
Caesars🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.73%E -3.55%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.55%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-17 04:15
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.73%E -3.55%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.81%E -2.40%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-14 16:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.73%E -3.55%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.81%E -2.40%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 08:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.73%E -3.55%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -7.81%E -2.40%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 23:25
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -6.16%E -4.70%K -19.87%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -1.85%E -0.535%K -0.753%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 22:00
FanDuel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.88%E -5.29%K -22.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.55%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-14 17:00
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.88%E -5.29%K -22.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -7.81%E -2.40%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-14 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -8.31%E -6.49%K -29.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -0.718%E -0.205%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-15 21:04
Betsson🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -8.31%E -6.49%K -29.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -0.718%E -0.205%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-15 21:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.57%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.43%2.0%2026-04-20 13:00
ProphetX◎1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-04-19 04:00
Novig◎1.31I 76.34%NM 70.43%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.57%8.4%2026-04-20 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-04-19 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-04-19 01:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-04-19 01:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.64%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.01%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.35%5.6%2026-04-19 15:54