Language:English
Jafel Filho v Cody Durden
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jafel Filho (Local)
Prediction 83.25%1.20fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -9.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.83%83.16%83.33%84.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.141.141.1888.50%87.49%87.72%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cody Durden (Visit)
Prediction 16.75%5.97fair odd
EV +4.66%
Edge +0.745%
Kelly +0.887%
Growth +0.041%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.31%16.84%16.67%19.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.855.795.906.2520.62%17.27%16.95%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jafel Filho (Local): 83.25%; Cody Durden (Visit): 16.75%. For Cody Durden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.97. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.66%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +4.66%E +0.745%K +0.887%G +0.041% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 13:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV +3.82%E +0.616%K +0.735%G +0.028% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -5.92%E -5.24%K -45.55%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV +3.82%E +0.616%K +0.735%G +0.028% | 4.6% | 2026-04-22 12:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.94%EV -4.26%E -3.70%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 6.01I 16.64%NM 16.06%EV +0.639%E +0.106%K +0.127%G +0.001% | 3.6% | 2026-04-23 03:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.471%E +0.079%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 12:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.471%E +0.079%K +0.094%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 22:07 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -4.26%E -3.70%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV -1.20%E -0.204%K -0.246%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-22 19:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -4.26%E -3.70%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -3.72%E -0.646%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-22 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.72%E -0.646%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 09:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.72%E -0.646%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 01:31 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.72%E -0.646%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -3.72%E -0.646%K -0.782%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.26%E -3.70%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -7.90%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 17:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.26%E -3.70%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -7.90%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 18:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.26%E -3.70%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -7.90%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 17:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.90%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 17:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.90%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 08:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.09%E -4.46%K -36.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -7.90%E -1.44%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-22 13:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -2.59%E -2.22%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -9.58%E -1.77%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-21 18:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -4.26%E -3.70%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -9.58%E -1.77%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 22:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -1.76%E -1.49%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -16.27%E -3.25%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-21 13:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.59%E -2.22%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.27%E -3.25%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 09:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.59%E -2.22%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.27%E -3.25%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 10:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.59%E -2.22%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.27%E -3.25%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 18:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.59%E -2.22%K -15.25%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.27%E -3.25%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 21:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -3.42%E -2.95%K -21.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -16.27%E -3.25%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-23 07:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.83%EV -4.26%E -3.70%K -28.38%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -18.79%E -3.87%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 12:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 2.1% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 2.1% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 2.1% | 2026-04-24 03:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.35% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.65% | 2.2% | 2026-04-24 01:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.99% | 5.71I 17.51%NM 17.01% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31% | 3.9% | 2026-04-24 00:14 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.81% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.19% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 08:24 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.56% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.61% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 07:15 |