Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacobe Smith v Bruce Whitehead

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 21:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

89%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacobe Smith (Local)

Prediction 89.00%1.12fair odd

EV -2.10%

Edge -1.90%

Kelly -20.95%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

86.47%88.90%88.87%89.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.061.071.071.1094.34%93.12%93.46%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bruce Whitehead (Visit)

Prediction 11.00%9.09fair odd

EV +2.59%

Edge +0.278%

Kelly +0.311%

Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 9.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.37%11.10%11.13%13.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.908.478.509.3314.49%11.81%11.76%10.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jacobe Smith (Local): 89.00%; Bruce Whitehead (Visit): 11.00%. For Bruce Whitehead (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.09. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.59%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 89.63%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	9.33I 10.72%NM 10.37%EV +2.59%E +0.278%K +0.311%G +0.008%	3.3%	2026-10-03 20:35
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 89.39%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	9.10I 10.99%NM 10.61%EV +0.061%E +0.007%K +0.008%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-10-03 21:15
DraftKings🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 20:35
BetRivers🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
TABtouch🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
Grosvenor🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
Virgin Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
betPARX🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
ATG (SE)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
Bally Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
Unibet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 21:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -1.04%E -0.115%K -0.130%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-03 11:05
ReBet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 89.18%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	8.90I 11.24%NM 10.82%EV -2.14%E -0.240%K -0.271%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-03 21:15
FanDuel🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -6.54%E -0.769%K -0.872%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-03 01:25
Bovada🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -6.54%E -0.769%K -0.872%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-03 21:14
NordicBet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -6.54%E -0.769%K -0.872%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-03 15:05
Caesars🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -6.54%E -0.769%K -0.872%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 21:14
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -6.54%E -0.769%K -0.872%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 21:15
888sport🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.66%E -5.34%K -94.26%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -6.54%E -0.769%K -0.872%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-03 11:10
Betsson🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.64%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	8.35I 11.98%NM 11.36%EV -8.19%E -0.980%K -1.11%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-03 15:05
BetMGM🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.42%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -9.29%E -1.13%K -1.28%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-03 13:30
Bet Right🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -12.03%E -1.50%K -1.72%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-03 01:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -12.03%E -1.50%K -1.72%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-03 13:30
Betr (AU)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -12.03%E -1.50%K -1.72%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-03 16:35
Coolbet🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -2.10%E -1.90%K -20.95%G +0.000%	7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV -16.43%E -2.16%K -2.49%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-30 21:00
Paddy Power🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -23.03%E -3.29%K -3.84%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-03 01:25
Sky Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -23.03%E -3.29%K -3.84%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-03 01:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -4.77%E -4.45%K -68.08%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -23.03%E -3.29%K -3.84%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-03 01:25
BetAnything🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 86.47%EV -3.88%E -3.59%K -48.44%G +0.000%	6.90I 14.49%NM 13.53%EV -24.13%E -3.50%K -4.09%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-10-03 21:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	1.10I 90.91%NM 90.97%	11.08I 9.03%NM 9.03%	-0.1%	2026-10-03 21:10
ProphetX◎	1.17I 85.47%NM 85.50%	6.90I 14.49%NM 14.50%	-0.0%	2026-10-03 21:15
Matchbook◎	1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%	0.9%	2026-10-03 21:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%	0.9%	2026-10-03 20:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%	0.9%	2026-10-03 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%	0.9%	2026-10-03 20:40
Novig◎	1.10I 90.91%NM 89.21%	9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79%	1.9%	2026-10-03 21:16

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 87.26%	8.40I 11.90%NM 10.91%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%	9.1%	2026-10-03 21:10