Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jackson Glass v Zak Flessas

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 22:10 UTC

Final: Jackson Glass 1–0 Zak Flessas

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

93%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jackson Glass (Local)

Prediction 93.15%1.07fair odd

EV -2.20%

Edge -2.09%

Kelly -43.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

91.95%93.15%93.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.031.031.0598.04%96.77%97.09%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zak Flessas (Visit)

Prediction 6.85%14.59fair odd

EV +16.50%

Edge +0.971%

Kelly +1.03%

Growth +0.170%

assuming max odds 17.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.66%6.85%6.85%8.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

12.0013.6712.0017.008.33%7.32%8.33%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jackson Glass (Local): 93.15%; Zak Flessas (Visit): 6.85%. For Zak Flessas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -4.99%E -4.89%K -249.51%G +0.000%	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +16.50%E +0.971%K +1.03%G +0.170%	3.9%	2026-07-18 21:45
FanDuel🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -2.20%E -2.09%K -43.92%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV -17.76%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-07-18 18:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.06%E -3.94%K -135.29%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -17.76%E -1.48%K -1.61%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-17 13:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.