Language:English
Jack Della Maddalena v Carlos Prates
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jack Della Maddalena (Local)
Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV +5.00%
Edge +2.38%
Kelly +4.54%
Growth +0.227%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.60%49.57%50.00%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.911.912.1054.64%52.26%52.36%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlos Prates (Visit)
Prediction 50.00%2.00fair odd
EV -0.998%
Edge -0.504%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%50.43%50.00%54.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.891.901.9856.82%52.77%52.63%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jack Della Maddalena (Local): 50.00%; Carlos Prates (Visit): 50.00%. For Jack Della Maddalena (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.00%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV +5.00%E +2.38%K +4.54%G +0.227% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -12.00%E -6.82%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 07:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV +5.00%E +2.38%K +4.54%G +0.227% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -12.00%E -6.82%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-02 07:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.002%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -10.00%E -5.55%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.74%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.26%EV -3.50%E -1.81%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.50%E -3.47%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 02:37 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -7.50%E -4.05%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 13:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -8.50%E -4.64%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -12.00%E -6.82%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-02 13:28 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87%EV -3.50%E -1.81%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13%EV -4.00%E -2.08%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-02 13:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.00%E -2.08%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.00%E -2.08%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-02 13:31 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.35%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-02 11:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -4.50%E -2.35%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 08:31 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -5.00%E -2.63%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 08:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.50%E -2.36%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.50%E -4.64%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 12:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -2.00%E -1.02%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -5.50%E -2.91%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -3.50%E -1.81%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-02 13:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -2.00%E -1.02%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-02 12:31 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -6.00%E -3.19%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.00%E -2.08%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 09:41 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 09:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.50%E -1.28%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-02 09:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -3.00%E -1.55%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 13:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -3.00%E -1.55%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 09:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -3.00%E -1.55%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 09:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -3.50%E -1.81%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-02 09:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.48%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.47%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 13:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -7.50%E -4.06%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -0.998%E -0.504%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.50%E -4.65%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.50%E -2.35%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.50%E -4.65%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -4.50%E -2.35%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 12:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.50% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.50% | 0.0% | 2026-05-02 13:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87% | 0.3% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87% | 0.3% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87% | 0.3% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 1.0% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86% | 1.3% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.00% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.00% | 1.5% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.38% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.62% | 1.8% | 2026-05-02 13:40 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.78% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.36% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 13:34 |