Language:English
Iwo Baraniewski v Junior Tafa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Iwo Baraniewski (Local)
Prediction 77.88%1.28fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -10.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.55%77.96%77.81%79.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.221.231.2584.03%81.70%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Junior Tafa (Visit)
Prediction 22.12%4.52fair odd
EV +5.06%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.068%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.17%22.04%22.19%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.264.204.7526.32%23.46%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iwo Baraniewski (Local): 77.88%; Junior Tafa (Visit): 22.12%. For Junior Tafa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.52. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.06%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -6.54%E -5.45%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +5.06%E +1.07%K +1.35%G +0.068% | 4.4% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -6.54%E -5.45%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV +5.06%E +1.07%K +1.35%G +0.068% | 4.4% | 2026-06-06 23:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.39%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%EV +3.95%E +0.841%K +1.07%G +0.042% | 3.2% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.04%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.96%EV +1.74%E +0.379%K +0.484%G +0.008% | 3.7% | 2026-06-06 23:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.54%E -5.45%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +1.74%E +0.379%K +0.484%G +0.008% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 23:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -0.469%E -0.104%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -2.68%E -0.609%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -2.68%E -0.609%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV -3.79%E -0.871%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-06 23:58 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -3.79%E -0.871%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-06 22:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -3.79%E -0.871%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -4.89%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.43%E -2.76%K -14.28%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -6.00%E -1.41%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-06 13:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -6.00%E -1.41%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-06 15:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -6.00%E -1.41%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-06 23:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -2.65%E -2.12%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-05 18:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 13:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 13:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 13:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 13:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 13:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 13:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-06 15:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -7.32%E -6.15%K -38.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -7.10%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-06 15:38 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.43%E -2.76%K -14.28%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -9.32%E -2.27%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-06 15:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -10.42%E -2.57%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-06 15:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -2.65%E -2.12%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-03 12:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-06 23:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.98%E -4.09%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -11.53%E -2.88%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-06 23:19 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -3.43%E -2.76%K -14.28%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-05 02:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%EV -6.54%E -5.45%K -32.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -12.63%E -3.20%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -4.21%E -3.42%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -15.95%E -4.20%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-06 23:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.44% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.56% | 0.3% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-06-06 23:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-06-06 23:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-06-06 23:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-06-06 23:49 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.20% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.80% | 1.0% | 2026-06-06 23:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 2.0% | 2026-06-07 00:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.43% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 22.70% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.9% | 2026-06-06 12:28 |