Language:English
Iwo Baraniewski v Austen Lane
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Iwo Baraniewski (Local)
Prediction 84.11%1.19fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -9.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.04%83.97%84.03%85.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.141.141.1790.91%87.66%87.72%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Austen Lane (Visit)
Prediction 15.89%6.29fair odd
EV +3.27%
Edge +0.503%
Kelly +0.595%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.81%16.03%15.97%18.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.886.006.5020.00%17.01%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Iwo Baraniewski (Local): 84.11%; Austen Lane (Visit): 15.89%. For Austen Lane (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.29. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.27%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.95%E -4.38%K -38.10%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +3.27%E +0.503%K +0.595%G +0.019% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.95%E -4.38%K -38.10%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +3.27%E +0.503%K +0.595%G +0.019% | 3.9% | 2026-03-21 15:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.75%EV -3.27%E -2.84%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.39I 15.65%NM 15.25%EV +1.52%E +0.239%K +0.283%G +0.004% | 2.6% | 2026-03-21 16:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.75%EV -3.27%E -2.84%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 6.39I 15.65%NM 15.25%EV +1.52%E +0.239%K +0.283%G +0.004% | 2.6% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.95%E -4.38%K -38.10%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -0.699%E -0.112%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 20:13 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -4.95%E -4.38%K -38.10%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV -1.49%E -0.241%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-18 13:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -4.95%E -4.38%K -38.10%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV -1.49%E -0.241%K -0.287%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-18 13:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 20:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 20:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -3.08%E -0.505%K -0.604%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-21 19:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.67%E -0.779%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 19:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.67%E -0.779%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 19:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.67%E -0.779%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-18 13:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.67%E -0.779%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 15:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.67%E -0.779%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 19:57 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.95%E -4.38%K -38.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.67%E -0.779%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 19:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.29%EV -7.48%E -6.80%K -74.77%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -6.26%E -1.06%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-21 13:53 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.64%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 19:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.64%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 13:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.64%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 13:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.64%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 14:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.95%E -4.38%K -38.10%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -8.64%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 21:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.70%EV -6.64%E -5.98%K -60.33%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.30%EV -9.44%E -1.66%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 14:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.27%E -2.84%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -12.62%E -2.29%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 15:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.27%E -2.84%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -12.62%E -2.29%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 01:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.95%E -4.38%K -38.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -12.62%E -2.29%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-21 13:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -1.59%E -1.36%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -15.79%E -2.98%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 21:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -2.43%E -2.09%K -15.19%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -15.79%E -2.98%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-18 08:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -1.59%E -1.36%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -20.56%E -4.11%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-18 06:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -1.59%E -1.36%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -20.56%E -4.11%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-16 17:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -1.59%E -1.36%K -9.35%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -20.56%E -4.11%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -4.11%E -3.61%K -29.37%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -20.56%E -4.11%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 17:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.68% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.32% | -0.2% | 2026-03-21 19:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 21:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 21:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 20:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.54% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 20:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.35% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.65% | 2.2% | 2026-03-21 21:09 |
| Novig◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.84% | 6.02I 16.61%NM 16.16% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 21:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.58% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 21:09 |