Language:English
Israel Adesanya v Joseph Pyfer
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Israel Adesanya (Local)
Prediction 57.36%1.74fair odd
EV +20.46%
Edge +9.74%
Kelly +18.60%
Growth +3.81%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%57.36%57.40%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.671.662.1062.11%59.92%60.24%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joseph Pyfer (Visit)
Prediction 42.64%2.35fair odd
EV +0.200%
Edge +0.085%
Kelly +0.148%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%42.64%42.60%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.732.232.252.3557.80%44.87%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Israel Adesanya (Local): 57.36%; Joseph Pyfer (Visit): 42.64%. For Israel Adesanya (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.46%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +20.46%E +9.74%K +18.60%G +3.81% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -26.24%E -15.17%K -35.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-01 05:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.98%EV -0.764%E -0.442%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-28 00:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -1.34%E -0.778%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -9.61%E -4.53%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-23 18:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -1.34%E -0.778%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -9.61%E -4.53%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-23 18:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.48%E -1.46%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 21:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.48%E -1.46%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.33%E -3.87%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-25 01:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.48%E -1.46%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.33%E -3.87%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 23:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -3.06%E -1.81%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -4.92%E -2.20%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-25 22:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -3.63%E -2.16%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -3.21%E -1.41%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-27 21:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.63%E -2.16%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.49%E -2.00%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-28 02:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.64%E -1.61%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 21:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.06%E -1.81%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-25 17:02 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.06%E -1.81%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-26 12:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.77%E -2.61%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 02:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-26 02:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 18:58 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-26 08:18 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 12:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.21%E -2.52%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-26 03:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.19%EV -4.78%E -2.88%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.81%EV -1.51%E -0.652%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-27 22:23 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -4.78%E -2.88%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -4.06%E -1.81%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-25 15:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -4.78%E -2.88%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-27 15:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.35%E -3.24%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.06%E -1.81%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 12:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.35%E -3.24%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.06%E -1.81%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 12:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.35%E -3.24%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.06%E -1.81%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-26 08:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.35%E -3.24%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-27 21:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -5.93%E -3.61%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV +0.200%E +0.085%K +0.148%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-27 12:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -5.93%E -3.61%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV +0.200%E +0.085%K +0.148%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-27 12:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -5.93%E -3.61%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -8.33%E -3.87%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-22 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:21 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.07%E -4.37%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.93%E -0.840%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-26 01:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.65%E -4.75%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-27 21:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.46% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 42.54% | 0.0% | 2026-03-28 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 0.2% | 2026-03-27 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 0.2% | 2026-03-27 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.00% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.00% | 0.2% | 2026-03-27 21:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07% | 0.9% | 2026-03-28 02:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-03-27 18:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57% | 1.2% | 2026-03-28 01:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.00% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.13% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.9% | 2026-03-26 07:54 |