The School of Odds
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Ismael Bonfim v Axel Sola

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 14:35 UTC

Final: Ismael Bonfim 0–1 Axel Sola

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ismael Bonfim (Local)

Prediction 36.07%2.77fair odd
EV +4.59%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +2.42%
Growth +0.111%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%35.91%36.14%37.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.622.9040.82%37.83%38.17%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Axel Sola (Visit)

Prediction 63.93%1.56fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -4.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.77%64.09%63.86%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.491.501.5369.93%67.09%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ismael Bonfim (Local): 36.07%; Axel Sola (Visit): 63.93%. For Ismael Bonfim (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betsson2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +4.59%E +1.58%K +2.42%G +0.111%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -8.57%E -6.00%K -19.94%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-25 14:25
NordicBet2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +4.59%E +1.58%K +2.42%G +0.111%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -8.57%E -6.00%K -19.94%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-25 14:25
Pinnacle2.76I 36.23%NM 35.21%EV -0.459%E -0.166%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.79%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-25 14:30
Bet Right2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.820%E -0.298%K -0.468%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-24 00:15
BetOnline.ag2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-25 14:20
BetAnything2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-25 14:20
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-25 14:30
Caesars2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-25 14:18
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.62%E -0.971%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.30%E -5.03%K -16.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-24 04:34
Bovada2.68I 37.31%NM 36.04%EV -3.34%E -1.25%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.96%EV -3.46%E -2.29%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-25 14:24
FanDuel2.66I 37.59%NM 36.21%EV -4.07%E -1.53%K -2.45%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.79%EV -3.46%E -2.29%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-25 12:25
BetMGM2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-18 21:20
Unibet (UK)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.38%E -3.63%K -11.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-25 14:20
Fliff2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.43%E -1.67%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.02%E -4.09%K -12.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-25 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -5.15%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 01:35
SportsBet2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.15%E -1.96%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 12:25
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.51%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 11:59
Betway2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.51%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 13:50
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -2.82%E -1.86%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-24 12:59
BetRivers2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 16:20
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 16:20
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 16:20
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 16:20
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 16:20
betPARX2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 16:20
Bally Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 16:19
ATG (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 16:20
PointsBet (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-24 10:20
Hard Rock Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 04:20
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.23%E -2.40%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-25 02:54
BetUS2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -6.95%E -2.69%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -2.18%E -1.43%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-24 20:50
888sport2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.10%E -2.73%K -8.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-24 19:35
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -8.03%E -3.15%K -5.18%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -4.74%E -3.18%K -9.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 08:40
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 36.86%EV -11.64%E -4.75%K -8.03%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.14%EV -8.57%E -6.00%K -19.94%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-21 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly2.85I 35.09%NM 35.08%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.92%0.0%2026-07-25 14:20
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94%1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06%0.1%2026-07-25 14:15
ProphetX2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-07-25 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-07-25 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%0.6%2026-07-25 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%1.1%2026-07-25 14:25
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%1.1%2026-07-25 14:24
Novig2.70I 37.04%NM 36.47%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.53%1.6%2026-07-25 14:30
Polymarket2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%2.0%2026-07-25 14:30