Ismael Bonfim v Axel Sola

2026-07-25 09:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

34%

66%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ismael Bonfim (Local)

Prediction 33.55%2.98fair odd

EV -1.01%

Edge -0.343%

Kelly -0.520%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.40%33.55%33.55%35.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.702.832.832.9537%35%35%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Axel Sola (Visit)

Prediction 66.45%1.50fair odd

EV -0.332%

Edge -0.221%

Kelly -0.664%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.29%66.45%66.45%68.60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.351.431.431.5074%70%70%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betclic (FR)	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -1.01%E -0.343%K -0.520%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -10.30%E -7.63%K -29.43%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-07-15 19:55
BetOnline.ag	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -9.40%E -3.48%K -5.53%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -0.332%E -0.221%K -0.664%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-07-16 01:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket	2.56I 39.06%NM 35.19%	1.39I 71.94%NM 64.81%	11.0%	2026-07-15 22:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	2.71I 36.90%NM 34.47%	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.70%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%	7.0%	2026-07-16 01:04