Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Islam Makhachev v Kamaru Usman

2026-12-31 19:25 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

73%

27%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Islam Makhachev (Local)

Prediction 72.61%1.38fair odd

EV -4.15%

Edge -3.14%

Kelly -12.97%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.61%72.61%72.61%72.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.321.321.321.3275.76%75.76%75.76%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kamaru Usman (Visit)

Prediction 27.39%3.65fair odd

EV -4.15%

Edge -1.19%

Kelly -1.66%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.39%27.39%27.39%27.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.503.503.5028.57%28.57%28.57%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Islam Makhachev (Local): 72.61%; Kamaru Usman (Visit): 27.39%. For Islam Makhachev (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.38. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.32, with an expected value of -4.15%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.15%E -3.14%K -12.97%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.15%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-02-20 05:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.03%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%	70.00I 1.43%NM 1.36%	5.3%	2026-02-22 01:40

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