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Islam Dulatov v Wellington Turman
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Islam Dulatov (Local)
Prediction 86.95%1.15fair odd
EV -0.882%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -6.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.83%86.84%86.84%89.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.091.091.1494.34%91.43%91.74%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wellington Turman (Visit)
Prediction 13.05%7.66fair odd
EV +15.53%
Edge +1.76%
Kelly +1.98%
Growth +0.307%
assuming max odds 8.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.79%13.16%13.16%17.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.507.177.008.8518.18%13.94%14.29%11.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Islam Dulatov (Local): 86.95%; Wellington Turman (Visit): 13.05%. For Wellington Turman (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.66. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.53%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.21%EV -6.97%E -6.51%K -99.55%G +0.000% | 8.85I 11.30%NM 10.79%EV +15.53%E +1.76%K +1.98%G +0.307% | 4.8% | 2026-07-25 13:00 |
| Betsson | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -6.10%E -5.65%K -76.24%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +10.97%E +1.29%K +1.46%G +0.160% | 4.4% | 2026-07-21 20:55 |
| NordicBet | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -6.10%E -5.65%K -76.24%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +10.97%E +1.29%K +1.46%G +0.160% | 4.4% | 2026-07-21 20:55 |
| BetMGM | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +4.44%E +0.555%K +0.634%G +0.028% | 4.2% | 2026-07-23 12:50 |
| Caesars | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +4.44%E +0.555%K +0.634%G +0.028% | 4.2% | 2026-07-25 01:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.10%E -5.65%K -76.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +4.44%E +0.555%K +0.634%G +0.028% | 5.1% | 2026-07-23 12:50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.46%EV -3.49%E -3.14%K -31.73%G +0.000% | 7.74I 12.92%NM 12.54%EV +1.04%E +0.135%K +0.155%G +0.002% | 3.0% | 2026-07-25 09:30 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.36%E -3.96%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -2.09%E -0.279%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-22 07:30 |
| Bovada | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.36%E -3.96%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -2.09%E -0.279%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-23 12:03 |
| Fliff | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.10%E -5.65%K -76.24%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -2.09%E -0.279%K -0.321%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-25 09:30 |
| FanDuel | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.96%EV -3.49%E -3.14%K -31.73%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.04%EV -3.39%E -0.459%K -0.530%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-24 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.72%EV -3.49%E -3.14%K -31.73%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.28%EV -5.35%E -0.738%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-25 07:54 |
| DraftKings | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.72%EV -3.49%E -3.14%K -31.73%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.28%EV -5.35%E -0.738%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-25 09:29 |
| Coolbet | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.72%EV -3.49%E -3.14%K -31.73%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.28%EV -5.35%E -0.738%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-21 13:45 |
| PlayUp | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -6.10%E -5.65%K -76.24%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -5.35%E -0.738%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-23 08:29 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.24%EV -7.84%E -7.39%K -130.63%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.76%EV -5.35%E -0.738%K -0.856%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-23 17:24 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.36%E -3.96%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-25 07:55 |
| SportsBet | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.36%E -3.96%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-22 08:30 |
| TAB | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.36%E -3.96%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-24 02:09 |
| Bet Right | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.36%E -3.96%K -43.60%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-25 10:00 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:39 |
| Unibet | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:39 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:40 |
| TABtouch | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:40 |
| BetRivers | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:40 |
| Bally Bet | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:40 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:39 |
| betPARX | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:40 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.23%E -4.80%K -58.11%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -8.62%E -1.23%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-24 18:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -3.49%E -3.14%K -31.73%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -15.14%E -2.33%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-22 08:30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.98%EV -7.84%E -7.39%K -130.63%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -15.14%E -2.33%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-24 18:40 |
| BetAnything | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.60%EV -3.49%E -3.14%K -31.73%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -20.37%E -3.34%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-25 12:50 |
| Betway | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -2.62%E -2.34%K -21.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -21.67%E -3.61%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-21 13:55 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -6.10%E -5.65%K -76.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -21.67%E -3.61%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-25 07:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -0.882%E -0.774%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -28.20%E -5.13%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-19 03:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.12I 89.29%NM 89.15% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.85% | 0.2% | 2026-07-25 00:39 |
| Kalshi | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91% | 0.7% | 2026-07-25 11:05 |
| Polymarket | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.1% | 2026-07-25 12:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18% | 2.6% | 2026-07-25 12:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18% | 2.6% | 2026-07-25 12:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18% | 2.6% | 2026-07-25 12:00 |
| Matchbook | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18% | 2.6% | 2026-07-25 12:55 |
| ProphetX | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.93% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 14.07% | 3.0% | 2026-07-25 11:20 |
| Novig | 1.01I 99.01%NM 88.00% | 7.41I 13.50%NM 12.00% | 12.5% | 2026-07-25 12:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.08% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.06% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 7.8% | 2026-07-23 20:05 |