The School of Odds
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Imanol Rodriguez v Matt Schnell

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Imanol Rodriguez (Local)

Prediction 89.13%1.12fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -19.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.53%88.99%89.19%89.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.071.071.1097.09%93.46%93.46%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Matt Schnell (Visit)

Prediction 10.87%9.20fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.240%
Kelly -0.270%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.36%11.01%10.81%14.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.508.398.509.0015.38%11.92%11.76%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Imanol Rodriguez (Local): 89.13%; Matt Schnell (Visit): 10.87%. For Imanol Rodriguez (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.12. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.10, with an expected value of -1.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -1.96%E -1.78%K -19.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -29.34%E -4.51%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-27 12:19
Pinnacle🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 89.01%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.99%EV -4.88%E -0.558%K -0.630%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-30 00:19
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -7.60%E -0.894%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 00:17
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -7.60%E -0.894%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 14:00
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -7.60%E -0.894%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 14:00
LeoVegas🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -7.60%E -0.894%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -7.60%E -0.894%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 14:00
TABtouch🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -7.60%E -0.894%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 14:00
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -7.60%E -0.894%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 14:00
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -18.47%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-27 11:08
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.74%E -3.46%K -46.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -18.47%E -2.46%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 13:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.63%E -4.33%K -66.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -2.16%E -0.240%K -0.270%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-26 20:59
Caesars🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.63%E -4.33%K -66.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -2.16%E -0.240%K -0.270%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-28 05:06
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.63%E -4.33%K -66.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -2.16%E -0.240%K -0.270%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-30 14:20
BetUS🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.21%EV -4.63%E -4.33%K -66.17%G +0.000%8.85I 11.30%NM 10.79%EV -3.79%E -0.429%K -0.483%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-28 12:39
SportsBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.63%E -4.33%K -66.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -7.60%E -0.894%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-31 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.63%E -4.33%K -66.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -13.03%E -1.63%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 14:10
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.94%EV -4.63%E -4.33%K -66.17%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.06%EV -15.21%E -1.95%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-27 11:10
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.52%E -5.21%K -92.05%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -7.60%E -0.894%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 14:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.07%EV -6.41%E -6.11%K -128.29%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.93%EV -15.75%E -2.03%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-27 06:30
NordicBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -7.31%E -7.02%K -182.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -2.16%E -0.240%K -0.270%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-26 18:20
Betsson🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -7.31%E -7.02%K -182.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -2.16%E -0.240%K -0.270%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-26 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.47%EV -8.20%E -7.96%K -273.23%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.53%EV -4.88%E -0.558%K -0.630%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-28 15:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.07I 93.46%NM 48.31%1.00I 100.00%NM 51.69%93.5%2026-06-01 06:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.96%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.80%8.3%2026-05-29 06:15