Language:English
Imanol Rodriguez v Kevin Borjas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Imanol Rodriguez (Local)
Prediction 79.13%1.26fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -7.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.55%79.06%79.23%80.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.211.211.2486.96%82.73%82.30%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kevin Borjas (Visit)
Prediction 20.87%4.79fair odd
EV +4.12%
Edge +0.826%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.043%
assuming max odds 4.99
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.12%20.94%20.77%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.494.474.9926.32%22.27%22.35%20.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Imanol Rodriguez (Local): 79.13%; Kevin Borjas (Visit): 20.87%. For Kevin Borjas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.79. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.12%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.88%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.79%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.12%EV +4.12%E +0.826%K +1.03%G +0.043% | 4.8% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.75%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.79%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.25%EV +3.29%E +0.664%K +0.832%G +0.027% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -5.04%E -4.20%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV +1.20%E +0.247%K +0.311%G +0.004% | 4.0% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87%EV -4.25%E -3.51%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13%EV +0.156%E +0.032%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -5.04%E -4.20%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +0.156%E +0.032%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-01 01:48 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -5.04%E -4.20%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -0.888%E -0.187%K -0.237%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -4.25%E -3.51%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -1.93%E -0.411%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -5.83%E -4.90%K -30.69%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -1.93%E -0.411%K -0.522%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.58%EV -1.87%E -1.51%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.42%EV -5.06%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-03-01 01:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.72%EV -2.66%E -2.17%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.28%EV -5.06%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 01:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.10%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.25%E -3.51%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.10%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 01:46 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.25%E -3.51%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.10%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.04%E -4.20%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.10%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.04%E -4.20%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.10%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.04%E -4.20%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.10%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.04%E -4.20%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.10%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.10%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.62%E -5.61%K -36.79%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.10%E -1.36%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -5.04%E -4.20%K -25.19%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -7.15%E -1.61%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-01 01:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.28%EV -9.00%E -7.82%K -59.97%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -8.19%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -9.65%E -2.23%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -4.25%E -3.51%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -10.28%E -2.39%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -12.36%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.46%E -2.83%K -15.71%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -12.36%E -2.94%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.55%EV -2.66%E -2.17%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -20.71%E -5.45%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 81.39% | 5.38I 18.59%NM 18.61% | -0.1% | 2026-03-01 01:36 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.21% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79% | 0.2% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-03-01 01:49 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-03-01 01:47 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 2.0% | 2026-03-01 01:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.97% | 4.83I 20.70%NM 20.03% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 01:47 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.98% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.15% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 01:37 |