The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ilias Bulaid v Erick Visconde

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 01:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilias Bulaid (Local)

Prediction 54.41%1.84fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -3.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.19%54.42%54.41%55.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.761.771.7958.14%56.79%56.66%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Erick Visconde (Visit)

Prediction 45.59%2.19fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.99%45.58%45.59%46.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.062.1450.00%48.31%48.54%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilias Bulaid (Local): 54.41%; Erick Visconde (Visit): 45.59%. For Erick Visconde (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.14, with an expected value of -2.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -2.61%E -1.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -4.71%E -2.25%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-14 00:50
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -3.16%E -1.77%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -4.25%E -2.02%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-14 01:00
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -3.70%E -2.09%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -6.08%E -2.95%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 00:35
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -3.70%E -2.09%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -6.08%E -2.95%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 00:35
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -3.70%E -2.09%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -6.08%E -2.95%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-14 00:35
ReBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -4.25%E -2.41%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -6.99%E -3.43%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-14 00:50
TAB🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -4.25%E -2.41%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -8.81%E -4.41%K -8.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-13 22:23
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.79%E -2.74%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -2.43%E -1.13%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-13 23:34
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.33%E -3.07%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.25%E -2.02%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-13 20:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.42%E -3.73%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -6.53%E -3.19%K -6.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 20:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.48%2.15I 46.51%NM 46.52%-0.0%2026-10-14 00:59
Novig◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.98%0.9%2026-10-14 00:45
Polymarket◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-10-14 00:45
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-10-14 00:40
ProphetX◎1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%8.8%2026-10-14 01:05