The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ilias Bulaid v Erick Visconde

Kickoff: 2026-09-29 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilias Bulaid (Local)

Prediction 53.18%1.88fair odd
EV -0.028%
Edge -0.015%
Kelly -0.032%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.30%53.18%52.85%59.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.741.701.8863.29%57.47%58.82%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Erick Visconde (Visit)

Prediction 46.82%2.14fair odd
EV +7.69%
Edge +3.35%
Kelly +5.92%
Growth +0.455%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.72%46.82%47.15%48.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.112.162.3051.02%47.44%46.30%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilias Bulaid (Local): 53.18%; Erick Visconde (Visit): 46.82%. For Erick Visconde (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -15.98%E -10.11%K -27.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV +7.69%E +3.35%K +5.92%G +0.455%6.8%2026-09-29 22:27
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -7.47%E -4.29%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +1.14%E +0.527%K +0.982%G +0.011%3.8%2026-09-29 20:30
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -9.60%E -5.65%K -13.71%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV +1.14%E +0.527%K +0.982%G +0.011%5.1%2026-09-29 17:35
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -9.60%E -5.65%K -13.71%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV +1.14%E +0.527%K +0.982%G +0.011%5.1%2026-09-29 17:35
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -9.60%E -5.65%K -13.71%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV +1.14%E +0.527%K +0.982%G +0.011%5.1%2026-09-29 17:34
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -9.60%E -5.65%K -13.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -4.01%E -1.96%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-29 22:05
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.22%E -1.77%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.48%E -2.20%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-29 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.30%EV -0.028%E -0.015%K -0.032%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.70%EV -7.29%E -3.68%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-29 22:14
ReBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -2.16%E -1.17%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -8.23%E -4.20%K -8.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-29 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.99%2.13I 46.95%NM 47.01%-0.1%2026-09-29 22:03
Novig◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74%0.7%2026-09-29 21:52
ProphetX◎1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%4.7%2026-09-29 22:33