The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ilias Bulaid v Erick Visconde

2026-09-29 23:15 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilias Bulaid (Local)

Prediction 53.00%1.89fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.00%53.00%53.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.781.771.8356.50%56.18%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Erick Visconde (Visit)

Prediction 47.00%2.13fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.21%47.00%47.00%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.012.002.0650.00%49.71%50.00%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ilias Bulaid (Local): 53.00%; Erick Visconde (Visit): 47.00%. For Ilias Bulaid (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.83, with an expected value of -3.01%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.01%E -1.64%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.01%E -3.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-28 18:20
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -6.19%E -3.49%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -3.19%E -1.55%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-28 16:25
ReBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.17%EV -6.19%E -3.49%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.83%EV -5.54%E -2.75%K -5.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-28 16:25
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.19%E -3.49%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.01%E -3.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 17:05
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.19%E -3.49%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.01%E -3.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 17:05
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.19%E -3.49%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.01%E -3.00%K -6.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.85I 54.05%NM 54.09%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.91%-0.1%2026-09-28 18:05
Novig◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.9%2026-09-28 18:40