Language:English
Ilia Topuria v Justin Gaethje
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ilia Topuria (Local)
Prediction 79.46%1.26fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -6.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.94%79.37%79.58%81.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.191.191.2488.50%84.26%84.39%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Justin Gaethje (Visit)
Prediction 20.54%4.87fair odd
EV +2.70%
Edge +0.539%
Kelly +0.674%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%20.63%20.42%24.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.614.605.0025.97%21.70%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilia Topuria (Local): 79.46%; Justin Gaethje (Visit): 20.54%. For Justin Gaethje (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.87. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.70%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -5.44%E -4.57%K -28.64%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV +2.70%E +0.539%K +0.674%G +0.018% | 4.0% | 2026-06-15 04:38 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -5.44%E -4.57%K -28.64%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV +2.70%E +0.539%K +0.674%G +0.018% | 4.0% | 2026-06-15 04:38 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +2.70%E +0.539%K +0.674%G +0.018% | 5.5% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.36%EV -3.85%E -3.18%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.64%EV +1.67%E +0.337%K +0.423%G +0.007% | 2.8% | 2026-06-15 04:38 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +0.642%E +0.131%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +0.642%E +0.131%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-06-15 04:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +0.642%E +0.131%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +0.642%E +0.131%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV +0.642%E +0.131%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 5.9% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -8.62%E -7.50%K -57.47%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV +0.642%E +0.131%K +0.165%G +0.001% | 7.4% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.90%EV -3.06%E -2.51%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 20.10%EV -0.385%E -0.079%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -1.41%E -0.294%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-15 04:41 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.70%EV -3.85%E -3.18%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.30%EV -2.44%E -0.513%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-15 04:36 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -2.44%E -0.513%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -7.83%E -6.75%K -48.91%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -2.44%E -0.513%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -8.62%E -7.50%K -57.47%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -2.44%E -0.513%K -0.650%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 79.22%EV -3.06%E -2.51%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.78%EV -4.49%E -0.966%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.52%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.52%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -6.24%E -5.28%K -34.65%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -5.52%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -5.52%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -5.52%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.03%E -6.01%K -41.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -5.52%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -7.83%E -6.75%K -48.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.52%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -7.83%E -6.75%K -48.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.52%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -7.83%E -6.75%K -48.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.52%E -1.20%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -3.85%E -3.18%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -7.57%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-15 04:36 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -3.85%E -3.18%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -7.57%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-15 04:28 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.57%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -7.83%E -6.75%K -48.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.57%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.65%EV -8.62%E -7.50%K -57.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -7.57%E -1.68%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.06%E -2.51%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -9.63%E -2.19%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.06%E -2.51%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -9.63%E -2.19%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.65%E -3.87%K -23.24%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -9.63%E -2.19%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.24%E -5.28%K -34.65%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -9.63%E -2.19%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.38%EV -10.21%E -9.03%K -78.53%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.62%EV -10.65%E -2.45%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -1.47%E -1.18%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -17.84%E -4.46%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.06%E -2.51%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -17.84%E -4.46%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.06%E -2.51%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -17.84%E -4.46%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.94%EV -3.06%E -2.51%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -20.92%E -5.43%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-15 04:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.84% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 20.16% | 0.2% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-06-15 04:41 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55% | 2.0% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32% | 3.0% | 2026-06-15 04:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 79.87% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.13% | 3.5% | 2026-06-15 04:39 |