Ilia Topuria v Justin Gaethje

2026-12-31 05:00 — MMA

Head to Head

1 sportsbooks (1 in analysis)

Option 1: Ilia Topuria (Local)

Odds

1.4071.43%Min

1.4071.43%Mean

1.4071.43%Median

1.4071.43%Max

Consensus probabilities

68.89%1.452Min

68.89%1.452Max

68.89%1.452Mean

68.89%1.452Median

68.89%1.452IQM

68.89%1.452Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.40 under the IQM model: 68.89%

EV -3.56%Edge -2.54%Kelly -8.89%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Justin Gaethje (Visit)

Odds

3.1032.26%Min

3.1032.26%Mean

3.1032.26%Median

3.1032.26%Max

Consensus probabilities

31.11%3.214Min

31.11%3.214Max

31.11%3.214Mean

31.11%3.214Median

31.11%3.214IQM

31.11%3.214Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.10 under the IQM model: 31.11%

EV -3.56%Edge -1.15%Kelly -1.69%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Ilia Topuria (Local) ▼	Justin Gaethje (Visit)	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.40I 71.43% NM 68.89%EV -3.56% E -2.54% K -8.89% G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26% NM 31.11%EV -3.56% E -1.15% K -1.69% G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-06-15 13:30
DraftKings	1.22I 81.97% NM 78.67%EV -15.96% E -13.08% K -72.53% G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22% NM 21.33%EV +40.00% E +8.89% K +11.43% G +4.57%	4.2%	2026-02-20 05:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth