Ilia Topuria v Justin Gaethje

2026-12-31 05:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

69%

31%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ilia Topuria (Local)

Prediction 68.89%1.45fair odd

EV -3.56%

Edge -2.54%

Kelly -8.89%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.89%68.89%68.89%68.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.401.401.401.4071%71%71%71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Justin Gaethje (Visit)

Prediction 31.11%3.21fair odd

EV -3.56%

Edge -1.15%

Kelly -1.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.11%31.11%31.11%31.11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

3.103.103.103.1032%32%32%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.56%E -2.54%K -8.89%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -3.56%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-06-15 13:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.