Ilia Topuria v Arman Tsarukyan

2026-08-02 03:10 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ilia Topuria (Local)

Prediction 63.40%1.58fair odd

EV -3.00%

Edge -1.96%

Kelly -5.66%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.40%63.40%63.40%63.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.531.531.531.5365%65%65%65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Arman Tsarukyan (Visit)

Prediction 36.60%2.73fair odd

EV -3.00%

Edge -1.13%

Kelly -1.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.60%36.60%36.60%36.60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.652.652.652.6538%38%38%38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.66%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -3.00%E -1.13%K -1.82%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-02-20 05:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.