Language:English
Ikram Aliskerov v Brunno Ferreira
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ikram Aliskerov (Local)
Prediction 69.88%1.43fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -5.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.18%70.05%69.91%73.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.351.351.4076.34%74.06%74.35%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brunno Ferreira (Visit)
Prediction 30.12%3.32fair odd
EV +8.43%
Edge +2.34%
Kelly +3.24%
Growth +0.273%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.68%29.95%30.09%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.253.6033.33%31.16%30.77%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ikram Aliskerov (Local): 69.88%; Brunno Ferreira (Visit): 30.12%. For Brunno Ferreira (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.43%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -8.46%E -6.46%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +8.43%E +2.34%K +3.24%G +0.273% | 4.1% | 2026-06-27 12:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -8.46%E -6.46%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +8.43%E +2.34%K +3.24%G +0.273% | 4.1% | 2026-06-27 12:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV +2.41%E +0.708%K +1.00%G +0.024% | 2.9% | 2026-06-27 16:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -7.76%E -5.88%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV +0.902%E +0.269%K +0.384%G +0.003% | 5.6% | 2026-06-26 18:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.604%E -0.183%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 15:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.604%E -0.183%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-27 15:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 16:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 16:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 16:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-24 14:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-24 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-24 14:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-24 14:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-24 14:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-24 14:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-24 14:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 11:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 12:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-27 05:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -2.11%E -0.649%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-24 14:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.91%EV -2.87%E -2.06%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%EV -2.71%E -0.840%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-06-27 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 14:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.74%EV -3.57%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%EV -4.22%E -1.33%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-27 16:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -2.17%E -1.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-27 14:18 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.57%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-27 16:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.57%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.57%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-27 16:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-27 15:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -5.12%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-27 14:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.62%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.38%EV -5.42%E -1.73%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 14:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.26%E -3.11%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 16:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-27 15:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -7.76%E -5.88%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-27 16:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.93%EV -7.76%E -5.88%K -24.25%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 30.07%EV -7.53%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-27 16:28 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.57%E -2.58%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-27 16:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.17%E -1.55%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 16:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.96%E -3.65%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-27 14:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.18%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-27 16:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 70.08% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.92% | -0.2% | 2026-06-27 16:28 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-06-27 15:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 0.9% | 2026-06-27 16:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75% | 1.0% | 2026-06-27 15:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-06-27 16:30 |
| Novig◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.40% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.60% | 1.5% | 2026-06-27 16:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49% | 2.8% | 2026-06-27 16:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.19% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.94% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-06-27 15:19 |