The School of Odds
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Igor Cavalcanti v Oscar Ravello

2026-09-15 23:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Igor Cavalcanti (Local)

Prediction 75.02%1.33fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -11.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.84%75.02%75.02%75.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.281.281.2978.74%78.13%78.13%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oscar Ravello (Visit)

Prediction 24.98%4.00fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.449%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.62%24.98%24.98%27.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.463.673.603.9528.90%27.26%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Igor Cavalcanti (Local): 75.02%; Oscar Ravello (Visit): 24.98%. For Oscar Ravello (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.95, with an expected value of -1.32%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38%EV -3.23%E -2.50%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%EV -1.32%E -0.335%K -0.449%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-12 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.23%E -2.50%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -5.07%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-12 14:20
ReBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.84%EV -3.23%E -2.50%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.16%EV -13.57%E -3.92%K -5.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.73%E -3.72%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -10.07%E -2.80%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 16:20
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.73%E -3.72%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -10.07%E -2.80%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 16:21
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.73%E -3.72%K -17.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -10.07%E -2.80%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 17:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%3.1%2026-09-12 19:25