The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Igor Cavalcanti v Oscar Ravello

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 00:29 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Igor Cavalcanti (Local)

Prediction 61.52%1.63fair odd
EV -0.950%
Edge -0.590%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.85%61.57%61.52%63.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.561.571.6165.79%63.97%63.69%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oscar Ravello (Visit)

Prediction 38.48%2.60fair odd
EV +1.20%
Edge +0.455%
Kelly +0.735%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.63%38.43%38.48%40.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.432.382.6342.55%41.13%42.02%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Igor Cavalcanti (Local): 61.52%; Oscar Ravello (Visit): 38.48%. For Oscar Ravello (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.63, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -6.49%E -4.27%K -12.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV +1.20%E +0.455%K +0.735%G +0.009%3.8%2026-09-16 00:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.04%EV -5.87%E -3.84%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.96%EV +0.428%E +0.164%K +0.266%G +0.001%3.7%2026-09-16 00:24
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -0.950%E -0.590%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-15 23:05
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -1.57%E -0.978%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -7.65%E -3.19%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-15 23:30
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -2.80%E -1.77%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 22:30
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.41%E -2.17%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 22:30
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.41%E -2.17%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 22:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.64%E -2.99%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.58%E -4.07%K -7.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 23:20
ReBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -5.26%E -3.41%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -9.58%E -4.07%K -7.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-16 00:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.61I 62.11%NM 62.21%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.79%-0.2%2026-09-16 00:25
Novig◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.12%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.88%1.6%2026-09-16 00:25
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%2.0%2026-09-16 00:20
ProphetX◎1.53I 65.36%NM 61.27%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%6.7%2026-09-16 00:25