Language:English
Ignacio Bahamondes v Tofiq Musayev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ignacio Bahamondes (Local)
Prediction 72.64%1.38fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -7.84%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.96%72.60%72.77%73.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.311.311.3476.92%76.22%76.34%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tofiq Musayev (Visit)
Prediction 27.36%3.65fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.416%
Kelly -0.576%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%27.40%27.23%29.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.483.523.6030.77%28.70%28.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Bahamondes (Local): 72.64%; Tofiq Musayev (Visit): 27.36%. For Tofiq Musayev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.97%EV -2.66%E -1.99%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.03%EV -5.88%E -1.71%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-27 18:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -2.66%E -1.99%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-27 21:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.12%EV -3.39%E -2.55%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.88%EV -5.88%E -1.71%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 16:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.39%E -2.55%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 20:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.39%E -2.55%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-23 00:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.39%E -2.55%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-23 00:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -3.39%E -2.55%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -9.71%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-24 01:38 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.39%E -2.55%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-25 15:53 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.39%E -2.55%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-25 15:53 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.12%E -3.12%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.50%E -0.416%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-27 21:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.84%EV -4.12%E -3.12%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.16%EV -3.14%E -0.887%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-27 21:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.12%E -3.12%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-27 23:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.12%E -3.12%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-27 21:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.12%E -3.12%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.34%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-23 23:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.12%E -3.12%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -9.71%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-28 02:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.84%E -3.70%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.50%E -0.416%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 13:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.84%E -3.70%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.50%E -0.416%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 12:03 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.84%E -3.70%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.50%E -0.416%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-27 13:36 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.84%E -3.70%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-27 12:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.84%E -3.70%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 12:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -4.84%E -3.70%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -8.34%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-27 21:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -1.50%E -0.416%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 13:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -1.50%E -0.416%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-27 13:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.87%E -0.807%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-27 12:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.03%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-27 18:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-27 23:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-27 09:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.57%E -4.28%K -18.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-23 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.34% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 27.66% | 0.2% | 2026-03-26 13:58 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-03-27 21:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-03-27 21:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-03-27 21:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-03-28 00:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.15% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.85% | 1.2% | 2026-03-28 00:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.93% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 28.07% | 1.5% | 2026-03-27 21:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 02:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.87% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.29% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.4% | 2026-03-27 16:25 |