Language:English
Ignacio Bahamondes v Muslim Salikhov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ignacio Bahamondes (Local)
Prediction 81.34%1.23fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -11.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.31%81.23%81.36%82.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.171.171.2092.59%85.43%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Muslim Salikhov (Visit)
Prediction 18.66%5.36fair odd
EV +2.62%
Edge +0.476%
Kelly +0.582%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.29%18.77%18.64%20.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.055.005.5022.73%19.79%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Bahamondes (Local): 81.34%; Muslim Salikhov (Visit): 18.66%. For Muslim Salikhov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.36. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.62%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.46%E -5.61%K -43.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +2.62%E +0.476%K +0.582%G +0.015% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.46%E -5.61%K -43.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +2.62%E +0.476%K +0.582%G +0.015% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.12%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 5.42I 18.45%NM 17.88%EV +1.13%E +0.208%K +0.255%G +0.003% | 3.2% | 2026-09-12 16:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +0.752%E +0.139%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -1.11%E -0.210%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-12 19:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -2.05%E -0.390%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 18:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -2.05%E -0.390%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 20:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -2.05%E -0.390%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -2.98%E -0.573%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%EV -2.98%E -0.573%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -2.98%E -0.573%K -0.709%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-05 23:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV -3.91%E -0.760%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 17:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV -3.91%E -0.760%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 17:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.20%E -2.69%K -16.86%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:16 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:16 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 20:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.83%E -4.13%K -28.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -6.71%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.88%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 19.12%EV -6.90%E -1.38%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -10.44%E -2.18%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -12.31%E -2.62%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-07 19:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -2.39%E -1.99%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -14.17%E -3.08%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 19:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.41%EV -4.02%E -3.40%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.59%EV -15.11%E -3.32%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 20:07 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 80.29%EV -12.15%E -11.25%K -151.88%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.71%EV -17.91%E -4.07%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-09-09 17:16 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.38% | 6.02I 16.61%NM 16.62% | -0.1% | 2026-09-12 20:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.23% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.23% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.77% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 82.13% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.87% | 0.6% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.35% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.65% | 1.2% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.25% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.75% | 1.3% | 2026-09-09 17:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.07% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.93% | 3.3% | 2026-09-12 20:10 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.76% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |