The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ian Garry v Yaroslav Amosov

2026-12-05 17:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ian Garry (Local)

Prediction 55.91%1.79fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -3.27%
Kelly -8.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.81%55.91%55.91%57.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.691.691.6959.17%59.17%59.17%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yaroslav Amosov (Visit)

Prediction 44.09%2.27fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.548%
Kelly -0.990%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.00%44.09%44.09%45.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.2448.78%46.62%46.62%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ian Garry (Local): 55.91%; Yaroslav Amosov (Visit): 44.09%. For Yaroslav Amosov (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.24, with an expected value of -1.23%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -5.52%E -3.27%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -1.23%E -0.548%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-08 12:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -5.52%E -3.27%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-08 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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