Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ian Escuza v Luca Borando

2026-09-30 00:05 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

48%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ian Escuza (Local)

Prediction 47.52%2.10fair odd

EV +0.267%

Edge +0.127%

Kelly +0.241%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.33%47.52%47.52%47.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.022.002.1150.00%49.46%50.00%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luca Borando (Visit)

Prediction 52.48%1.91fair odd

EV -4.49%

Edge -2.46%

Kelly -5.47%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.36%52.48%52.48%55.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.681.771.771.8259.52%56.44%56.50%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ian Escuza (Local): 47.52%; Luca Borando (Visit): 52.48%. For Ian Escuza (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.10. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.11, producing a positive expected value of +0.267%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
ReBet🎯	2.11I 47.39%NM 44.33%EV +0.267%E +0.127%K +0.241%G +0.001%	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -11.83%E -7.04%K -17.40%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-28 16:25
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.01%E -1.99%K -3.93%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.47%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-28 17:30
FanDuel🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.96%E -2.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.49%E -2.46%K -5.47%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-28 16:25
Grosvenor🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.96%E -2.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.11%E -4.02%K -9.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-28 17:05
Unibet🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.96%E -2.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.11%E -4.02%K -9.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-28 17:05
TABtouch🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.96%E -2.48%K -4.96%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.11%E -4.02%K -9.23%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-28 17:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
BetOpenly◎	2.16I 46.30%NM 46.27%	1.86I 53.76%NM 53.73%	0.1%	2026-09-28 19:20
Novig◎	2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74%	1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26%	0.7%	2026-09-28 18:20