The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Humberto Bandenay v Sang Won Kim

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 00:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Humberto Bandenay (Local)

Prediction 63.50%1.57fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -4.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.71%63.50%62.50%65.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.511.511.5468.03%66.08%66.23%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sang Won Kim (Visit)

Prediction 36.50%2.74fair odd
EV +2.94%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.62%
Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.27%36.50%37.50%38.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.502.452.8240.82%39.92%40.82%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Humberto Bandenay (Local): 63.50%; Sang Won Kim (Visit): 36.50%. For Sang Won Kim (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.73%EV -6.66%E -4.53%K -14.17%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.27%EV +2.94%E +1.04%K +1.62%G +0.047%3.5%2026-05-02 23:25
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -2.85%E -1.86%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-02 15:00
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -2.22%E -1.44%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -7.28%E -2.87%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-02 05:41
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.49%E -2.29%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 15:00
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.49%E -2.29%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.74%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 15:00
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -3.49%E -2.29%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 05:35
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -4.12%E -2.73%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 05:36
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -4.12%E -2.73%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 05:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -4.12%E -2.73%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 05:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -4.12%E -2.73%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 05:41
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -4.12%E -2.73%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 05:41
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -4.12%E -2.73%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -10.57%E -4.31%K -7.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 05:41
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.