The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hugo Guillon v Luis Hernandez

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 23:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hugo Guillon (Local)

Prediction 57.38%1.74fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -4.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%57.41%57.38%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.651.661.6962.11%60.65%60.24%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luis Hernandez (Visit)

Prediction 42.62%2.35fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.857%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%42.59%42.62%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.262.3047.62%44.42%44.25%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hugo Guillon (Local): 57.38%; Luis Hernandez (Visit): 42.62%. For Luis Hernandez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -1.97%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -3.03%E -1.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -4.96%E -2.22%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-15 23:40
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -3.60%E -2.14%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV -3.68%E -1.63%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-15 23:45
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.18%E -2.50%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.10%E -1.82%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-15 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.18%E -2.50%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.50%E -5.00%K -9.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 23:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -4.75%E -2.86%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -2.40%E -1.05%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-15 23:45
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.05%E -4.35%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.97%E -0.857%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 23:45
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.05%E -4.35%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.97%E -0.857%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 23:40
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.05%E -4.35%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.97%E -0.857%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 23:45
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -7.62%E -4.73%K -12.49%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -4.96%E -2.22%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95%0.2%2026-09-15 23:10
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-09-15 23:45
Novig◎1.77I 56.50%NM 55.08%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.92%2.6%2026-09-15 23:45
ProphetX◎1.63I 61.35%NM 56.42%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.58%8.7%2026-09-15 23:45