Language:English
Hector Santiago v Lawrence Lui
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hector Santiago (Local)
Prediction 25.22%3.96fair odd
EV +0.888%
Edge +0.222%
Kelly +0.296%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%25.54%25.17%28.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.733.804.0029.41%26.80%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lawrence Lui (Visit)
Prediction 74.78%1.34fair odd
EV -0.545%
Edge -0.410%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.88%74.46%74.83%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.281.271.3381.97%78.16%78.43%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hector Santiago (Local): 25.22%; Lawrence Lui (Visit): 74.78%. For Hector Santiago (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.96. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.888%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +0.888%E +0.222%K +0.296%G +0.003% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.78%E -4.59%K -22.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-28 22:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +0.888%E +0.222%K +0.296%G +0.003% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.78%E -4.59%K -22.23%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-28 22:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.888%E +0.222%K +0.296%G +0.003% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.53%E -5.22%K -26.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -0.373%E -0.095%K -0.127%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -1.63%E -0.419%K -0.564%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 07:46 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.87I 25.84%NM 25.15%EV -2.39%E -0.618%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.85%EV -2.79%E -2.15%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.54%E -2.74%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-29 07:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.54%E -2.74%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.28%E -3.35%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 07:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 07:46 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.44%EV -4.66%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.56%EV -3.54%E -2.74%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.76I 26.60%NM 25.54%EV -5.17%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.46%EV -3.54%E -2.74%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-29 07:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.42%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.28%E -3.35%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-29 06:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.42%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-29 07:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.54%E -2.74%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.03%E -3.96%K -18.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -9.20%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -2.79%E -2.15%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-28 23:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -9.20%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.54%E -2.74%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 23:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -9.20%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.28%E -3.35%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-28 23:13 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -10.46%E -2.95%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -1.29%E -0.980%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-28 21:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -11.72%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.79%E -2.15%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-29 06:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.72%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.54%E -2.74%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-28 21:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.72%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.54%E -2.74%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-28 21:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -11.72%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.54%E -2.74%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-28 21:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -12.98%E -3.76%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.88%EV -8.77%E -7.19%K -39.87%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-29 07:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -14.25%E -4.19%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -0.545%E -0.410%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-28 12:22 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.18I 23.92%NM 23.86% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.14% | 0.3% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 1.3% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 1.3% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47% | 1.9% | 2026-08-29 07:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47% | 1.9% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.39I 29.50%NM 27.72% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.28% | 6.4% | 2026-08-29 07:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.64% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.51% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.7% | 2026-08-29 06:20 |