Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guram Mestvirishvili v Jansey Silva

2026-10-23 22:30 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guram Mestvirishvili (Local)

Prediction 54.64%1.83fair odd

EV -3.84%

Edge -2.18%

Kelly -5.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.64%54.64%54.64%56.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.631.671.631.7661.35%59.76%61.35%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jansey Silva (Visit)

Prediction 45.36%2.20fair odd

EV -2.47%

Edge -1.15%

Kelly -2.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.12%45.36%45.36%45.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.122.142.152.1547.17%46.73%46.51%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Guram Mestvirishvili (Local): 54.64%; Jansey Silva (Visit): 45.36%. For Jansey Silva (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.15, with an expected value of -2.47%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.84%E -2.18%K -5.05%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.84%E -1.81%K -3.42%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-23 12:11
Unibet🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.88%EV -10.94%E -6.71%K -17.36%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -2.47%E -1.15%K -2.15%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-10-23 09:59
Grosvenor🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.88%EV -10.94%E -6.71%K -17.36%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -2.47%E -1.15%K -2.15%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-10-23 10:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.